Tag: 2023 Week 18

Hankins, Smith’s return to Cowboys are welcomed, provided they’re really ready

If Johnathan Hankins and Tyler Smith are healthy and the risk of re-injury is minimal, Cowboys shouldn’t hesitate playing them in Week 18. | From @ReidDHanson

The Cowboys suffered a pair of significant blows to both sides of their interior lines over the last month. Johnathan Hankins, Dallas’ top run stuffer, fell to a high ankle sprain in Week 14. Then in Week 17, the Cowboys lost LG Tyler Smith to a torn plantar fascia late in the third quarter.

The absences of Smith and Hankins were felt as the Cowboys struggled to replace the all-important starters in the lineup. Dallas’ running game fell to -0.340 EPA/rush in the fourth quarter without Smith. And since Hankins was lost, the Cowboys’ run defense has allowed a success rate of 48 percent on the ground, which ranks 31st in the NFL during that stretch.

So, when Mike McCarthy addressed their respective injury statuses this week, saying there’s a chance both would be available for the regular season finale, Cowboys Nation collectively rejoiced. Both sides of the ball stand to improve with their return and Dallas needs a win in Week 19 to secure the NFC East crown and the No. 2 seed for the postseason.

But given the importance of both players to the Cowboys, Dallas can’t afford to jeopardize their long-term impact for some short-term gains in Week 18. Given the falloff behind Smith and Hankins in the lineup, some argue the risk of re-injury isn’t worth it.

To clear something up at the start, there are no indications either specific player is at an added risk of re-injury by returning in Week 18 vs returning in the wild card round. But high ankle sprains in general, do have added injury risk is a player comes back too early. Similarly, while each case is unique, a torn plantar fascia has the potential for re-injury or be the cause of ancillary injuries if a player is compensating for pain.

The Cowboys clearly want Smith and Hankins back in the lineup this week, but not if it potentially has negative effects on their postseason roster.

Commanders taught Cowboys valuable lesson in Week 18 last season

The Commanders taught the Cowboys in last season’s Week 18 matchup, Dallas can’t afford to take any game for granted, says @ReidDHanson

The Cowboys are just one win away from locking in the No. 2 seed and gaining homefield advantage through, at the very least, two rounds of the postseason. Current lines have the Cowboys as heavy favorites over the 4-12 Commanders, making the NFC East crown seemingly a forgone conclusion.

While the confidence of the Cowboys in Week 18 is certainly warranted, overconfidence is a legitimate concern. Luckily for the Cowboys, they have a recent reminder of what a less-than-full effort can do.

It was nearly a year ago to the day the Cowboys were in a similar situation to this one. Dallas was fighting for the division title and needed to win Week 18 in order to keep hopes alive. Opening as heavy favorites over the Commanders last season, the Cowboys appeared to give a half-hearted effort in the season finale. The result was an embarrassing performance which resulted in an upset loss and ended the regular season on a rather sour note.

Ultimately, the Eagles won their own game, so the Dallas loss didn’t mean anything, but at the time the stakes were real, and the Cowboys never gave themselves a chance. It’s a lesson they can use today as they try to stay focused on an inferior opponent this Sunday.

In last season’s Week 18 game, the Cowboys came in with an ultra-vanilla gameplan and underwhelming effort in all three phases of the game. Dallas lost 26-6 and after only passing for 128 yards, Dak Prescott was ultimately replaced with Cooper Rush as Mike McCarthy admitted defeat.

The Cowboys showed they weren’t good enough to just show up and win. If they wanted a restful afternoon, they should have taken care of business early. Instead, they acted entitled and paid the price.

This season, the Cowboys completely control their own destiny and aren’t reliant on another team’s misstep for them to claim the No. 2 seed. If they want to protect starters and not show too much of their playbook, the best way is to go all out from the start. Only after gaining a big lead should they deepen their rotations, vanilla their play-calling and rest their starters.

Starting with a conservative gameplan is not the answer. Last season proved it. If the Cowboys show they learned from last season’s embarrassment, that Week 18 letdown could go down in the books as a good thing. But if they repeat the same pompous mistake, the ramifications figure to be significantly worse.

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Cowboys 53-man roster, practice squad for Week 18 after OL signing

The Cowboys have adjusted their roster for Week 18, adding OL depth. Here’s the 53-man and PS. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys brought back a familiar face on Tuesday. La’el Collins, starting right tackle for the club from 2017 through 2021, has been added to the 16-man practice squad. On the street all season, Collins had a disastrous 2022 with Cincinnati and has worked out for two other teams this year without seeing a deal.

He’s being brought in to help with depth along the line, as Tyron Smith and Tyler Smith have been ailing over the recent weeks. Backup Chuma Edoga did not look good in Smith’s absence recently, so the team is looking to bolster their depth and options heading into the playoffs.

Right tackle Terence Steele has struggled this season as well, but is wholly expected to maintain his starting position. The club also activated second-year tackle Matt Waletzko last week.

Here’s a look at the club’s full 53-man roster and 16-man practice squad, noting which of the PS guys still have elevations remaining to try and help the team get win No. 12 against Washington on Sunday evening.

Here’s why winning NFC East is so important to Cowboys’ Super Bowl aspirations

There may be some fun discussions to be had, but when it comes down to both history and this season’s team, the Cowboys are better served at home. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys need one more win to keep the party going. They’ve already clinched a playoff berth, so that’s sewn up, but they still need to win a Week 18 divisional road contest in order to give themselves the best chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

A victory against the Washington Commanders on Sunday will give Dallas a 12th win on the year for the third consecutive season under Mike McCarthy. It will also mean the NFC East continues it’s trend of not having a repeat champion for a full two decades.

But that’s anecdotal, bragging rights stuff that in the end is inconsequential. The real meat and potatoes of sports is whether or not a team can hoist a trophy when it’s all said and done. The Cowboys haven’t done so in a very long time, so the focus should be on what is the best path for them to get there.

Any team can lose a game, at home or on the road.

That’s the nature of sports and in the one-and-done world of football, it’s even more true. Small sample sizes can lead to a ton of “gotcha” moments that don’t disprove trends, and knowing when to go against the grain is crucial in betting, but vibes are not a solid way to move. Trends are trends for a reason, and the data says Dallas’ most likely path to representing the NFC on a neutral surface, is to play as many games as possible at AT&T Stadium.

Here’s why.

All NFL QBs, including Dak Prescott, ranked by Total QBR going into Week 18

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and as the season winds down, the best QBs are staking their claim to guide their club’s to the playoffs. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott leads the NFL with 32 touchdown passes going into the final game of the season. Despite a large percentage of media using his 2022 performance in bad-faith arguments, he’s proven himself as one of the game’s best quarterbacks this season and that last year’s interception total was an aberration.

Prescott’s passer rating (104.2) ranks second in the league, as does his Total QBR rating on ESPN (70.5).

Here is part of ESPN’s explanation for its Total QBR rating, courtesy of Sharon Katz and Brian Burke:

ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

So, with that context in mind, here’s a look at the QBR ratings for all 32 NFL teams, some with multiple entries, going into Week 18 of the 2023 season.

NFL Power Rankings Week 18: Ravens tighten grip, Cowboys and Bills climb as season end nears

The final week of the regular season has arrived, and the pecking order is coming into focus.

There’s just one weekend of football left for 18 NFL teams. While there are still a myriad of clubs hopeful they’ll be invited to the dance, they all aren’t going to make it. Only 14 teams will make the tournament, single-elimination style. As of now, the No. 1 seeds have been determined but everything else is pliable.

With Baltimore and San Francisco running both their respective coasts and conferences, the rest of the country is jostling for position. The Dallas Cowboys returned to the win column, while the Buffalo Bills have a chance to either be the No. 2 seed in the AFC or miss the playoffs entirely. Here’s a look at which teams have the most credibility heading into the final game.

NFL announces crucial week 18 schedule as Cowboys, Eagles share timeslot

Dallas and the Eagles square off at the same time as two of five games in their timeslot with impact on the NFC seedings.| From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys are one win away from keeping a two-decade tradition alive. No team has repeated as NFC East champions since the 2003 and 2004 Philadelphia Eagles. With both the Cowboys and Eagles sporting identical 11-5 records, the tiebreaker process is a central conversation piece entering Week 18.

If the Cowboys win their sixth and final division match, at Washington, they take the division for the second time in three years. If they lose the opportunity is afforded the Philadelphia Eagles. As such, the NFL will have both teams kick off at the same time, 3:25 pm Central on January 7.

The league holds the kickoff time for all Week 18 games until the playoff scenarios are pretty much locked in. Here’s a look at all of the key NFC matchups, along with the full slate.

NFC Playoff Picture: 49ers clinch, Cowboys control NFC East, 2-seed destiny

A look at the ways Dallas controls their own destiny, and potential playoff seeding and clinching scenarios for the NFC in Week 18. | From @KDDrummondNFL

What an exhilarating 17-hour stretch for the Dallas Cowboys and their fans. Perhaps there’s something to this breaking the curse thing after all. During halftime of the team’s Week 17 matchup with NFC North champion Detroit, the Cowboys inducted Jimmy Johnson into the Ring of Honor. Long deserved, Cowboys Nation has felt that the team’s drought in playoff success has been a bit of bad mojo after Jerry Jones ousted the two-time Super Bowl winner.

With some late-game craziness aiding Dallas to a 20-19 win over the Lions, the good vibes continued through the early Sunday games. The Cardinals, the team that upset the Cowboys in Week 3 and placed them in a precarious position of chasing the Eagles all season, arrived in Philadelphia as major underdogs. After falling behind 21-6 at half, Arizona scored touchdowns on all four of their second-half possessions and pulled off a 35-31 win. Along with other early-game results, the playoff picture shifted and Week 18’s importance came into focus.