Tag: 2023 Week 13

Cowboys-Seahawks Final Injury Report: Parsons clean bill, RB Kenneth Walker doubtful

A look at the injury status for Thursday’s Cowboys-Seahawks matchup as the teams close practice and ready for the contest. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys appear to be at full strength for their Thursday matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. After missing the Week 12 game with a back issue, safety Jayron Kearse was not given a game designation after Wednesday’s work, indicating his imminent return to the starting lineup. Along with Kearse, all seven Cowboys avoiding even a questionable designation. That list includes linebacker Micah Parsons, who missed Tuesday’s practice due to illness.

Parsons was a full participant in Wednesday’s work. Meanwhile, the opposite sideline isn’t as lucky. The Seahawks had hoped to get star running back Kenneth Walker back in the lineup after leaving the team’s Week 11 loss with an oblique injury. That will likely not be the case as he didn’t participate this week and was listed as doubtful. For a full run down of both team’s ailments and designations, check out below.

Here’s how Dak Prescott, Cowboys efficiency is setting the NFL standard

Dak Prescott has the Cowboys third down offense in rarefied air here in 2023. | From @ReidDHanson

In the NFL, games are often won or lost on third downs. While early downs are typically the most productive, it’s those critical third downs that make the difference between a drive stalling or a drive extending.

Dak Prescott has always been among the best in the league in this aspect. Since joining the Cowboys in 2016, he’s top-10 in both third down EPA and success rate on third downs. But here in 2023, he’s taking his third down prowess to new levels, averaging a jaw-dropping 0.553 adjusted EPA/play. It’s a number that’s 0.25 more than the No. 2 QB this season, and an output better than any QB has achieved in the last six seasons.

This isn’t the season something like this was supposed to happen. On a micro level, the Cowboys offense was undergoing a change in leadership. With Kellen Moore out, Mike McCarthy was finally able make the offense in his image. Growing pains were expected, and throughout the first five weeks, growing pains were experienced.

On a macro level, the NFL is shifting back to a two-high safety league. The bend-but-don’t break virus has been spreading throughout, as the Legion of Boom model fades into the background. Passing numbers are down across the league, and with it, many efficiency stats as well.

Despite fate’s best efforts to limit big plays and force offenses to dink and dunk their way down the field, Prescott and the Cowboys attack have found a way to post gaudy numbers without being needlessly reckless downfield.

Prescott has been opportunistic in 2023 and he’s often choosing to be most opportunistic on third downs.

As a team, the Cowboys are second in the NFL in their third down conversion rate. Considering how slowly they started the season, that’s a very impressive position to be 12 games into the season.

Will the good times keep rolling?

There’s no reason to think they’ll stop. Even with the increasingly difficult schedule, Prescott has been operating at peak levels within McCarthy’s system. It’s not smoke and mirrors but an every-down efficiency that can adapt to a variety of defensive schemes.

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Cowboys’ DBs maximizing impact of dominant pass rush

Much of the secondary’s success is because of the pass rush but here’s why both parts working together makes Dallas their most optimal.

Defensive football is a synergistic dance between the many layers of a complete unit. While some players are transcendent and can impose their will on any given play, defense is generally regarded as a single-point failure situation where one weakness stands to undo the entire mission.

The Cowboys don’t have such obvious weaknesses. Their defensive plays in harmony with one another, offering high-end play at every layer and daring opponents to find a weakness to target.

The league thought they found a weakness in Dallas when Trevon Diggs was lost for season. Yet with DaRon Bland recently setting an NFL record in interceptions returned for touchdowns, the Cowboys inexplicably replaced one All-Pro with presumably another All-Pro.

The dominance of one layer allows the perfect opportunity for another layer to thrive. And as long as the Dallas offense does their part and puts points on the board, the defense is in position to do what they do best. Make plays.

Are people making too much of the Cowboys home/away splits in 2023?

Too much is made of the Cowboys’ home and away splits this season which is good news because their postseason will likely be on the road, from @ReidDHanson

The Cowboys have been virtually unstoppable at home. Not only are they a perfect 5-0 at AT&T Stadium in 2023, but they are averaging 41 points per game. Their homefield advantage even dates back to last season. Aside from their Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay, the Cowboys were perfect at home in 2022 as well.

On the road it’s a bit of a different story. The Cowboys are only 3-3 on the road in 2023 and their average offensive output of 24 points/game sits 17 points lower than their average scoring output at home. It’s a noticeable split between home and away and it’s brought them plenty of national attention as a result.

It’s understandable too since the Cowboys will very likely be playing most, if not all, of their postseason games on the road. Odds currently have Dallas as heavy favorites to finish as the fifth seed (77 percent chance). The need to get better on the road is something even I harped on when the Cowboys lost their first matchup with Philadelphia in Week 9.

But maybe it’s not as simple as home vs away?

Here’s why the Cowboys are a great fit for Shaq Leonard

The Cowboys have a few things going for them and as long as the money’s right, they should be a desirable landing spot for Shaq Leonard. | From @ReidDHanson

When Shaq Leonard was released by Indianapolis last week, the Cowboys were immediately linked as a potential suitor. But unlike most links to Dallas, this one had actual teeth. The Cowboys’ thinnest position on their roster is arguably their LB corps so a former All-Pro like Leonard just makes sense.

Playing primarily out of a nickel defense that utilizes extra safeties and rarely asks more than two off-ball LBs to take the field together, the Cowboys have their starters in place. Damone Clark, an ascending second-year LB out LSU, and Markquese Bell, a converted SAF, have been doing admirably at LB for Dallas.

The two players understand Dan Quinn’s system and are proving to be true three-down players for the Cowboys. But behind them the well looks dry.

A neck injury in Week 5 had already ended the season of Leighton Vander Esch, and before that, Dallas lost rookie LB DaMarvion Overshown to a preseason ACL tear. The player they hoped would have developed by now, Jabril Cox, never did, resulting in his preseason release. Even Devin Harper was lost when Cincinnati claimed him off waivers in late September.

Aside from Bell and Clark, the Cowboys only have Rashaan Evans playing the off-ball LB position at the moment.

On one hand, this could be seen as a bad thing, but on the other hand, it’s that glaringly obvious need at the LB position that’s Dallas’ biggest selling point.

The Cowboys need Leonard and that could work to their advantage. Players want to be where they’re needed. The Cowboys are extremely shallow at the position and can all but guarantee snaps to Leonard on Day 1.

The chances of Bell and Clark going injury-free from here on out is fairly slim. LB is a physical position, and at the very least, an extra LB could give them breathers in a regular rotation.

Leonard might not be likely to regain All-Pro form, but last seen, he’s still pretty darn good. He’s particularly effective in run support, which happens to be an area in which Dallas struggled. It should be no mystery as to why the Cowboys are interested in adding Leonard and why they scheduled a visit for Tuesday.

Recent reports indicate other teams may also be interested in the former Colt and Dallas will have to sell him on the idea of joining the Cowboys. While money is understandably a big factor in any free agent sales pitch, the attractiveness of the situation is also sure to play a role.

Besides money, the Cowboys have a few things separating them from the pack:

  1. An immediate need
  2. A long-term need
  3. Contender status
  4. A dominant defense around him

The immediate need is clear. Rotating Leonard in on obvious run situations is a way he could make an instant impact on the Cowboys.

Yet, unlike other teams who just need Leonard to hold down the fort while other players recover from injuries, Dallas needs him for the entire season. There are no reinforcements coming for the Cowboys which means Leonard can feel confident he won’t be benched a few weeks down the road.

The Cowboys are also quite clearly playing for something. They are one of the top teams in the NFC and on a clear path to the postseason. Leonard would be playing for something in Dallas.

The Cowboys also have an elite defense in place around him. Their defensive line and secondary are elite. Leonard wouldn’t be picking up the slack of others – he’d be playing with an All-Star cast and only have to focus on himself.

As long as the money is right, there are reasons to believe the Cowboys have the inside track on adding Leonard.

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Week 13 Odds: Cowboys-Seahawks, Prescott MVP, playoff chances, DPOY for Bland, Parsons

Pending MNF, the Cowboys will have the week’s largest margin of victory in for the 5th time in ’23. Deservedly, they have one of the largest spreads and several post-season award candidates entering Week 13.

There’s one game left in the NFL schedule for Week 12, as the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears prepare to square off on Monday Night Football. The NFC North rivals will face off, and they’re fans certainly care, but the rest of the NFL world is more than likely already looking ahead to the Week 13 slate.

For the Dallas Cowboys, their focus is on the Seattle Seahawks, who they will square off with on Thursday Night Football, a week after the two teams had decidedly different results from their Thanksgiving games. And while all of the players are focused on team goals, performing their best as individuals is how they help achieve those goals.

So it’s not selfish for Dak Prescott to want to play well enough he continues to earn MVP conversation. It’s still team-centric for Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland to improve their odds to win Defensive Player of the Year.

Here’s a look at the Cowboys-related lines, according to BetMGM as of Monday, November 27 8 am Central.

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings: New No. 1 replaces Eagles as 49ers, Ravens stake claim

The Eagles keep winning, but ranking teams based on record is the easy way out.

The Philadelphia Eagles are two wins clear of their closest competitors. They’ve won the Super Bowl rematch against Kansas City, on the road no less. So how can they possible lose the No. 1 spot in the power rankings? There are a handful of reasons.

The Eagles, quite simply, don’t look like the best team in football right now. They certainly look like they have the ability to be, but so do five or six other teams. Philadelphia has been the beneficiary of two things that do not seem sustainable. The Eagles have had a ridiculous amount of help by the referee crews assigned to their games, and they’ve also had an unbelievable amount of fortunate bounces go their way.

Whether it be Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s hideous drop at the end of Week 11, or Gabe Davis making the wrong choice on a wide-open option route in overtime this week, the game-deciding moments have bounced the Eagles way all season. Without those plays, or the referees heavy-handed nature against their opponents while swallowing the whistle during Eagles’ infractions, they’ve been extremely blessed and highly favored. But those aren’t reasons to keep them ranked No. 1.

In reality, they are on par with the bundle of 8-3 teams that sit below them in the standing and right now two of those teams feel better equipped to march their way to the Super Bowl. They aren’t in the top five in EPA, DVOA, nor PFF team grades. They have the wins, but not the substance of a dominant team.

Others do, though and fortunately, one of those teams is next up on their schedule for a scintillating Sunday matchup for Week 13.

The San Francisco 49ers are healthy again on offense and will travel to The Linc in a rematch of the NFC Championship game. And after a SNF victory where their defense once again shone brightly, the Baltimore Ravens also have a claim to be the game’s best. Who sits atop the throne this week?

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