Tag: 2023 fantasy football average draft position

Examining recent fantasy football ADP data

Which players stood out the most in a look at recent ADP results?

Every fantasy football draft season creates what is known as “average draft position” data (ADP), which gamers can utilize to help find trends and get a feel for current valuation tendencies.

It’s a fair way for novice players to relate positional value and also contrast how other drafters perceive worth vs. other positions. That said, it’s easy to get caught up in the numbers and fixate too much on them.

Don’t become enamored with the raw data, especially if you’re unable to validate the source material. For example, mock drafters may not be as likely to put forth earnest effort and/or could be willing to take wild risks in relation to making picks when that actually count for something.

[lawrence-related id=478973]

Utilizing ADP data as guidelines is fine, but getting wrapped up in strictly adhering to them will get you in trouble. It’s always a positive to know whereabouts players tend to get selected within a few rounds’ margin or to develop a feel for positional runs — such as how many of the safe QB1s or No. 1 tight ends go in the first eight rounds, on average. ADP never should be treated as the be all, end all.

With that out of the way, here’s commentary from the most recent ADP chart from RTSports.com. The data used comes from 12-team, PPR drafts between July 21 to July 27. Players in green are significant movers upward, whereas those highlighted in red have drastically fallen of late.

Pick Rnd Player Pos Team Bye Notes
1.61 1 Justin Jefferson WR MIN 13
1.83 1 Christian McCaffrey RB SF 9
3.17 1 Ja’Marr Chase WR CIN 7
4.52 1 Austin Ekeler RB LAC 5
6.35 1 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 10
7.81 1 Travis Kelce TE KC 10
8.01 1 Bijan Robinson RB ATL 11
8.15 1 Saquon Barkley RB NYG 13 Holdout threat is gone after signing new one-year deal
8.28 1 Tyreek Hill WR MIA 10
10.57 1 Jonathan Taylor RB IND 11 Contractual situation seems to have building frustration with the organization
10.95 1 Nick Chubb RB CLE 5
12.69 2 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 7
15.45 2 Stefon Diggs WR BUF 13
15.50 2 Josh Jacobs RB LV 13 Lengthy holdout expected, perhaps into the preseason
15.64 2 Tony Pollard RB DAL 7
16.11 2 A.J. Brown WR PHI 10
17.70 2 Davante Adams WR LV 13
18.68 2 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ 7 May slip a spot or two coming up after suffering a minor injury in camp
20.18 2 Derrick Henry RB TEN 7
20.33 2 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET 9
20.50 2 Josh Allen QB BUF 13
20.57 2 Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE 11 Patriots’ overtures toward signing another RB is disconcerting
21.33 2 Patrick Mahomes QB KC 10
24.56 3 Najee Harris RB PIT 6
26.73 3 Breece Hall RB NYJ 7 Dalvin Cook visiting on 7/27 sends a clear message over Hall’s health
27.31 3 Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 10
27.51 3 DeVonta Smith WR PHI 10
27.52 3 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 10
28.47 3 Chris Olave WR NO 11
30.68 3 Travis Etienne RB JAX 9
31.54 3 Mark Andrews TE BAL 13
33.80 3 Kenneth Walker III RB SEA 5
34.45 3 Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 9
36.02 4 Joe Burrow QB CIN 7 Should start to fall a few spots after suffering calf strain in practice
36.87 4 Tee Higgins WR CIN 7
37.74 4 Dameon Pierce RB HOU 7
37.97 4 Joe Mixon RB CIN 7
39.94 4 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA 5
42.17 4 Miles Sanders RB CAR 7
42.38 4 Amari Cooper WR CLE 5
42.43 4 Aaron Jones RB GB 6
42.48 4 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 13
43.99 4 Deebo Samuel WR SF 9
44.56 4 T.J. Hockenson TE MIN 13
45.03 4 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 13 Mystery absence continues to drive his value down; tread carefully
45.52 4 Terry McLaurin WR WAS 14
48.17 5 Justin Herbert QB LAC 5
48.57 5 Alexander Mattison RB MIN 13
49.88 5 Keenan Allen WR LAC 5
50.87 5 Rachaad White RB TB 5
51.39 5 DeAndre Hopkins WR TEN 7
51.53 5 Dalvin Cook RB FA 13 Awfully large investment for a guy who is bound to share significant touches wherever he signs
52.90 5 Justin Fields QB CHI 13
53.31 5 Calvin Ridley WR JAX 9
55.37 5 D’Andre Swift RB PHI 10
57.12 5 Cam Akers RB LAR 10
57.28 5 George Kittle TE SF 9
60.85 6 James Conner RB ARI 14
62.14 6 Christian Watson WR GB 6
62.50 6 Javonte Williams RB DEN 9 Cleared for camp and will avoid the PUP; still could be overvalued, however
63.57 6 D.J. Moore WR CHI 13
64.23 6 Jerry Jeudy WR DEN 9
64.24 6 Trevor Lawrence QB JAX 9
64.40 6 Mike Williams WR LAC 5
65.35 6 Christian Kirk WR JAX 9 Seemingly overvalued if Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram ADPs prove true
65.73 6 Isiah Pacheco RB KC 10 Coming along nicely from two offseason surgeries
67.43 6 Chris Godwin WR TB 5
67.81 6 Drake London WR ATL 11
68.74 6 Darren Waller TE NYG 13
69.02 6 Kyle Pitts TE ATL 11
71.18 6 David Montgomery RB DET 9
71.81 6 James Cook RB BUF 13
72.03 7 Dallas Goedert TE PHI 10
73.79 7 Michael Pittman Jr. WR IND 11
74.11 7 Tyler Lockett WR SEA 5
75.41 7 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 14
75.66 7 Brandon Aiyuk WR SF 9
77.52 7 AJ Dillon RB GB 6
80.49 7 Alvin Kamara RB NO 11 Seeing slight bump after reaching a plea deal but still a facing possible suspension
81.33 7 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 6
81.50 7 Mike Evans WR TB 5 Tough to justify how undervalued he has been all summer, even with a shaky QB situation
82.86 7 Marquise Brown WR ARI 14
85.40 8 George Pickens WR PIT 6
85.52 8 Deshaun Watson QB CLE 5
87.40 8 Brian Robinson Jr. RB WAS 14 Sound value for an RB3 if you miss out on the more obvious options
88.53 8 Jamaal Williams RB NO 11
90.55 8 Dak Prescott QB DAL 7
91.23 8 De’Von Achane RB MIA 10
92.55 8 Khalil Herbert RB CHI 13
93.46 8 Kadarius Toney WR KC 10 Torn knee cartilage WR puts Week 1 in jeopardy; stock will plummet once news catches up
93.92 8 Jordan Addison WR MIN 13
94.04 8 Treylon Burks WR TEN 7 Seeing a dip in his ADP after DeAndre Hopkins signing; offering strong WR3 value
94.15 8 Samaje Perine RB DEN 9 Small decline thanks to Javonte Williams being healthy enough to avoid PUP
96.34 9 Evan Engram TE JAX 9
96.61 9 Pat Freiermuth TE PIT 6
99.38 9 Jahan Dotson WR WAS 14
99.44 9 Zach Charbonnet RB SEA 5
99.61 9 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA 5
99.84 9 Rashaad Penny RB PHI 10
101.44 9 Courtland Sutton WR DEN 9
102.30 9 Brandin Cooks WR DAL 7 Pretty sweet value this late in drafts
103.64 9 Tua Tagovailoa QB MIA 10
104.57 9 David Njoku TE CLE 5 Continues to be overvalued
105.18 9 Michael Thomas WR NO 11 Could see his ADP rise with a healthy showing in camp
105.61 9 Damien Harris RB BUF 13
109.01 10 Daniel Jones QB NYG 13
112.09 10 Gabriel Davis WR BUF 13
113.88 10 San Francisco 49ers DEF SF 9
114.06 10 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 9
114.40 10 D’Onta Foreman RB CHI 13 Appears to be the third wheel between Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson
115.35 10 Odell Beckham Jr. WR BAL 13
115.56 10 Kirk Cousins QB MIN 13
116.94 10 Jared Goff QB DET 9
119.30 10 Jerick McKinnon RB KC 10
119.30 10 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR NE 11 If healthy, he presents a worthwhile gamble
119.58 10 Elijah Moore WR CLE 5
120.02 11 Dalton Kincaid TE BUF 13
120.26 11 Geno Smith QB SEA 5
122.07 11 Aaron Rodgers QB NYJ 7
125.13 11 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE TEN 7
125.36 11 Dalton Schultz TE HOU 7 Presents tremendous value in PPR, although it seems like gamers are starting to catch on
125.95 11 Philadelphia Eagles DEF PHI 10
126.93 11 Jameson Williams WR DET 9 DET acquired Denzel Mims, who offers a similar skill set. Use that to your advantage to stash Williams
128.04 11 Quentin Johnston WR LAC 5
128.81 11 Justin Tucker K BAL 13
131.66 11 Anthony Richardson QB IND 11
132.88 12 Kareem Hunt RB FA 5
133.75 12 Jaylen Warren RB PIT 6
134.81 12 Russell Wilson QB DEN 9
135.39 12 Adam Thielen WR CAR 7 Thielen’s stock continues to climb as Bryce Young’s reputation builds
135.78 12 Allen Lazard WR NYJ 7
136.40 12 Tyler Allgeier RB ATL 11
136.41 12 Kendre Miller RB NO 11 Lingering recovery from knee injury has him falling, in addition to Alvin Kamara accepting plea deal
136.65 12 Tank Bigsby RB JAX 9 Solidifying himself as a primary backup with a possible role near the goal line; nice value buy
137.62 12 Devin Singletary RB HOU 7
139.44 12 Ezekiel Elliott RB FA 7
140.42 12 Dallas Cowboys DEF DAL 7
142.64 12 Rondale Moore WR ARI 14
143.34 12 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 10 Miami appears to be out of the Dalvin Cook sweepstakes, which bodes well for Mostert
143.39 12 Zay Flowers WR BAL 13 Practicing at three positions and drawing praise. Bump from Rashod Bateman on PUP
145.49 13 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 9
146.49 13 Donovan Peoples-Jones WR CLE 5
146.84 13 Rashod Bateman WR BAL 13 Placed on PUP while recovering from foot injury
147.67 13 New England Patriots DEF NE 11
148.65 13 Tyler Higbee TE LAR 10
148.70 13 Leonard Fournette RB FA 5
149.96 13 Cole Kmet TE CHI 13
150.30 13 Nico Collins WR HOU 7
152.68 13 Daniel Carlson K LV 13
153.02 13 Sam LaPorta TE DET 9 Trending in the right direction to become the team’s starting tight end
153.60 13 Buffalo Bills DEF BUF 13
154.43 13 Derek Carr QB NO 11
155.28 13 Tyjae Spears RB TEN 7 Awesome price point for a handcuff or independent RB5 buy
157.01 14 Romeo Doubs WR GB 6 Has been Jordan Love’s go-to guy this offseason; should be trending upward soon
158.09 14 Skyy Moore WR KC 10 Benefits greatly from Kadarius Toney’s knee injury; will continue to fly up boards
158.22 14 Roschon Johnson RB CHI 13 Criminally undervalued as he’s in a competition for the RB1 role
159.26 14 Chuba Hubbard RB CAR 7
159.39 14 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 10
160.54 14 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 11 Slowly trending upward due to potential pass-catching role
160.71 14 Jakobi Meyers WR LV 13
161.24 14 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 10 Nice spot to take a gamble on him being behind two fragile RBs
161.79 14 Tyler Bass K BUF 13
164.82 14 K.J. Osborn WR MIN 13
165.51 14 Baltimore Ravens DEF BAL 13
165.74 14 Irv Smith Jr. TE CIN 7
166.55 14 Jeff Wilson RB MIA 10 De’Von Achane impacts Raheem Mostert more, which isn’t being reflected in ADP data
168.55 15 Darnell Mooney WR CHI 13
168.79 15 Michael Mayer TE LV 13
169.12 15 Evan McPherson K CIN 7
169.14 15 Jerome Ford RB CLE 5 Oddly, he’s falling when he should be rising. One to watch in camp
169.57 15 Tyler Boyd WR CIN 7
170.70 15 Jacksonville Jaguars DEF JAX 9
171.17 15 Jordan Love QB GB 6
172.53 15 Juwan Johnson TE NO 11 Quickly going from sneaky sleeper to risky depth in a crowded TE room
173.80 15 Michael Carter RB NYJ 7
174.69 15 Jonathan Mingo WR CAR 7
175.61 15 Jason Myers K SEA 5
178.58 15 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC 10
178.59 15 Joshua Kelley RB LAC 5
178.66 15 Kyler Murray QB ARI 14 Ever so slightly crawling up boards as he’s receiving more positive health reports
178.89 15 Harrison Butker K KC 10
179.47 15 Wan’Dale Robinson WR NYG 13 Still not healthy and may not be for some time yet
179.59 15 Gus Edwards RB BAL 13
179.79 15 Kansas City Chiefs DEF KC 10
179.92 15 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 13
180.29 16 Bryce Young QB CAR 7
180.38 16 Zay Jones WR JAX 9
180.56 16 Kenny Pickett QB PIT 6
181.25 16 Parris Campbell WR NYG 13
181.53 16 Chase Brown RB CIN 7
182.46 16 New York Jets DEF NYJ 7
182.59 16 Gerald Everett TE LAC 5
183.25 16 Zach Evans RB LAR 10 Seeing his stock fall with the addition of Sony Michel, despite Evans being a far better talent
184.45 16 Tim Patrick WR DEN 9
184.71 16 Miami Dolphins DEF MIA 10
185.89 16 Taysom Hill TE NO 11
186.74 16 Brock Purdy QB SF 9 Elbow is on track and should remain in the lead for San Fran’s QB1 gig
186.85 16 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 7
186.96 16 Mac Jones QB NE 11
188.21 16 Zach Ertz TE ARI 14
188.47 16 Ryan Tannehill QB TEN 7 Creeping his way up boards following the DeAndre Hopkins signing
189.06 16 Alec Pierce WR IND 11
189.68 16 New Orleans Saints DEF NO 11
189.82 16 Sam Howell QB WAS 14
189.97 16 Rashee Rice WR KC 10
190.17 16 Hunter Henry TE NE 11
190.60 16 Chase Edmonds RB TB 5
190.73 16 Cameron Dicker K LAC 5
191.67 16 Brandon McManus K JAX 9
192.29 17 D’Ernest Johnson RB JAX 9
192.30 17 Pierre Strong Jr. RB NE 11
192.68 17 Jayden Reed WR GB 6
192.84 17 Zack Moss RB IND 11 Challenging for the RB2 role behind a top back adds intrigue
193.30 17 Nathaniel Dell WR HOU 7
193.96 17 Pittsburgh Steelers DEF PIT 6
194.35 17 Denver Broncos DEF DEN 9
194.78 17 Isaiah Hodgins WR NYG 13 Starting to rise from a shaky WR corps after a quality stretch in 2022
194.84 17 Cleveland Browns DEF CLE 5
194.90 17 Younghoe Koo K ATL 11
195.01 17 Rashid Shaheed WR NO 11
195.75 17 Zamir White RB LV 13 Handcuff for Josh Jacobs and is on the upswing thanks to the star back’s holdout
196.08 17 Jimmy Garoppolo QB LV 13
197.12 17 Cincinnati Bengals DEF CIN 7
197.33 17 Michael Gallup WR DAL 7 Still seeing his stock dip after the acquisition of Brandin Cooks; merely a flier at this point
197.86 17 Desmond Ridder QB ATL 11 Sleeper potential at a bare-bones price tag
198.02 17 Jake Elliott K PHI 10
198.18 17 Matt Breida RB NYG 13 Facing competition after Eric Gray was drafted and James Robinson joined off the street
198.35 17 Jake Moody K SF 9
198.70 17 Brett Maher K DEN 9
199.00 17 Seattle Seahawks DEF SEA 5
199.00 17 Mike Gesicki TE NE 11
199.10 17 DeVante Parker WR NE 11
199.23 17 Greg Zuerlein K NYJ 7
199.84 17 Marvin Mims WR DEN 9
200.14 17 D.J. Chark WR CAR 7
200.27 17 Van Jefferson WR LAR 10 Tremendous upside this late after an injury-impacted 2022 dulled his ’21 shine
200.36 17 Ty Chandler RB MIN 13
200.47 17 Riley Patterson K DET 9
200.50 17 Israel Abanikanda RB NYJ 7 Dark horse for touches if Dalvin Cook doesn’t sign
200.72 17 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC 10
200.77 17 Jarvis Landry WR FA 11
201.00 17 Washington Commanders DEF WAS 14
202.15 17 Mecole Hardman WR NYJ 7
202.30 17 Allen Robinson WR PIT 6 Battling Calvin Austin for the slot role; looked great in OTAs and is worth monitoring
202.53 17 Hunter Renfrow WR LV 13
203.06 17 Terrace Marshall Jr. WR CAR 7 Looking at a fresh start with a clear mind following a poor start to his career
203.33 17 Luke Musgrave TE GB 6
203.65 17 Deuce Vaughn RB DAL 7
203.70 17 Robert Woods WR HOU 7
203.82 17 Hayden Hurst TE CAR 7