Tag: 2022 Wild Card

This unexpected edge could be difference-maker for Cowboys vs. Bucs

For all the hand wringing, multiple advanced stats say the Cowboys run defense is really quite good, but that’s not even the key to this game. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys started their 2022 season with a 19-3 defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, losing quarterback Dak Prescott, safety Jayron Kearse and left guard Connor McGovern in the process. All three would return and help the Cowboys finish with a 12-5 record, their first 12-win seasons in consecutive years since the 93-94 seasons.

As for the Bucs. they were unable to rekindle their success in the ground game and would suffer multiple injuries to their offensive line on their way to an 8-9 record.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

55-man roster: Cowboys add 2 key defenders for wild-card game vs Bucs

The Cowboys are adding Johnathan Hankins and Xavier Rhodes to their roster, along with an offensive lineman, in preparation for battle. | From @KDDrummondNFL

While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had an ace up their sleeve for the wild-card game on Monday night, the Dallas Cowboys hope to counter with two. Earlier on Monday the Bucs activated center Ryan Jansen for the first time all season. Jansen had partially torn his ACL in training camp, and returns amidst some additional Bucs’ line issues. Dallas expected Jansen’s return, and the Bucs likely anticipated one on the Cowboys’ side as well.

After missing the last four contests due to a pec strain, midseason addition Johnathan Hankins was activated on Monday as well. Hankins has stated he believed he was ready before now, but IR rules mandated the continued absence. That’s not the only roster move of importance for Dan Quinn’s defense. Forever in search of help at cornerback Trevon Diggs after the loss on Anthony Brown, Dallas is elevating veteran Xavier Rhodes from the practice squad for his first action of the year with the club.

Dallas has tried slot corner DaRon Bland, second-year CBs Kelvin Joseph and Nahshon Wright as well as Treyvon Mullen in recent weeks. It’s not known how much Rhodes will play, but it may be extensive considering the number of passing-game weapons the Bucs can throw at a defense.

In addition, the club has elevated Aviante Collins to be the eighth offensive lineman. The NFL relaxes their regular season rules for the playoffs and players can be elevated at a club’s leisure now, regardless of how many times they were elevated during the regular season. Here’s a look at the 55-man roster Dallas will deploy for the game.

How to watch, stream, listen to Cowboys-Bucs wild-card, what awaits winner

A look at all of the key game information, including our favorite prop bet, listening, streaming and alternate broadcast options and more. | From @KDDrummondNFL

It’s finally arrived. After two days of chaotic NFL football action, the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the on-deck circle. The final wild-card game of the holiday weekend is less than 24 hours away and will help round out the divisional round picture.

The winner of Monday’s contest will travel to take on the San Francisco 49ers Sunday, who obliterated the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday and will enter that game on an 11-game winning streak and with two extra days rest. But there’s work to be done to get there. Here’s all of the info for Monday night’s rematch from Week 1.

Cowboys must be prepared for new NFL overtime rules

The NFL will be playing by new rules in overtime this postseason and they could impact how coaches strategize and decisions are made. | From @ReidDHanson

Overtime has not been kind to the Dallas Cowboys this season. Dallas went 0-2 in games that extended beyond regulation, losing to Green Bay and Jacksonville on the road. Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys only have one overtime win on their record.

If the Cowboys are forced into “extra innings” this postseason, the results could look differently. That’s because the NFL has changed the way they are handling overtime in the playoffs. The new method evens the balance and places less importance on winning the coin flip, and more on simple execution.

Under the new playoff rules, both teams are guaranteed an offensive possession. In a format that better resembles college football, the second team is allowed the opportunity to match, or even exceed, the first team’s results.

The overtime period will now be 15 minutes instead of 10. It will have three timeouts and zero coaches challenges per half. If the first team receiving the ball scores a touchdown, the second team still has a chance to answer. If the second team then scores a touchdown, a typical extra point will tie the game and a two-point conversion will win.

If the game is tied after both teams have had possessions, it will move to the familiar sudden death format of old. Next team to score wins.

Statistically, the odds no longer heavily favor the first team with the ball.

Brian Burke, the unofficial Godfather of NFL Analytics, ran it through 120,000 simulations and found the first team with the ball wins 50.29 percent of the time, considerably more even than the 57 percent advantage the old rules offered.

Teams that value the informational advantage of being the second team may ignore the odds and prefer to actually kick away in OT rather than receive. The second team would be more likely to play aggressively, go for it on fourth downs, and go-for-two after a score (an action the odds favor if the second team scores)

But willingly asking to be the second team ignores the advantage the first team potentially gets regarding the number of possessions (the first team with the ball is assured to have equal or more possessions).

The Cowboys offense plays better when they are unleashed and pushing to score. Perhaps Mike McCarthy would like to play to his offense’s strengths and ignore the slight odds that favor the first team.

The final factor the Cowboys would want to consider is wind. If the margins are so narrow between being the first team with the ball and being the second team with the ball, deferring and playing to the wind may be the wisest move.

Dallas has a kicker they believe in and field goals are still likely to determine a large chunk of overtime games under the new format. Picking the direction rather than the order might be the best way to gain an advantage (if the wind is significant, it most assuredly would).

This is all something to keep in mind as the Cowboys head into their wild-card showdown with Tampa Bay on Monday night.

Cowboys’ secondary, not pass rush, key to sacking Tom Brady

It doesn’t matter how well the Cowboys pass rush plays if Dallas can’t force Tom Brady to hold the ball. | From @ReidDHanson

Pressure the quarterback and good things will happen. It’s a tried and true defensive strategy employed since the dawn of the forward pass. And it’s a strategy Dan Quinn takes to heart as the general of the Dallas Cowboys defense. As Dallas prepares to face Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in their wild-card matchup on Monday, it’s a strategy that’s easier said than done.

The reason Tom Brady is here today, playing  his 23rd NFL season at the ripe age of 45, is because he knows how to survive. Brady knows pressure leads to mistakes and injuries, both of which can end seasons. He’s made a career of avoiding it. Not through game-breaking athleticism and escapability, but by way of quick release and limited exposure in the pocket.

Brady is known for getting the ball out quickly and accurately and this season is certainly no different. Per PFR, his average time in the pocket currently sits at 2.2 seconds. Among starting quarterbacks, that ties him for the lowest in the league.

Keep in mind, ESPN measures pass block win-rate on a 2.5 second baseline because most offensive lines should be able to sustain blocks for at least 2.5 seconds (only two teams are outside of 50% success rate in PBWR). Brady’s getting the ball out with time to spare.

By this logic, the Cowboys pass-rush could be absolutely dominant at the snap, winning battle after battle, and still walk away with a blank on the stat sheet.

If the ball is out faster than the defense can get home, it’s not a pass rush issue, it’s become a coverage issue.

Cowboys must win first, but options for divisional round down to 2

The Cowboys entered the weekend with five possible outcomes. Two have been eliminated through just the first NFC wild-card game.

The Dallas Cowboys are focused on the task at hand. Despite being slight road favorites, there’s no question that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady present a ridiculous hurdle for the Cowboys to climb over. With the team’s history against the quarterback (0-7) and on the road on the playoffs (0-for-30 years), there’s no way they are looking beyond the task at hand, escaping Monday night with a win.

But on the outside, from the bleachers and couches, looking ahead has no such impact. Fans can care about the rest of the NFC playoffs, and with Saturday’s results, more is known about what kind of path Dallas would need to traverse to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1995 season.

Final Injury Report: Parsons misses practice, Cowboys rule out CB, 11 Bucs designated

The star edge rusher had more important things to do than practice on Saturday, while the Bucs have a series of injury questions for Monday. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys are relatively healthy going into their wild-card game, which is of utmost importance as they prepare to try and topple the Tom Brady monster. Dallas is 0-7 against Brady across his career, and all hands are needed on deck to break that streak and the 30-year lull of playoff road victories the franchise faces. On Saturday, the final injury report ahead of Monday night’s battle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was released, and Dallas only ruled out one player, cornerback Treyvon Mullen.

Some would say after Mullen’s performance in Week 18 it was unlikely he was going to see any snaps unless dire emergency. Edge rusher Micah Parsons was included in the final report, but only because he missed practice to attend the birth of his child. Meanwhile, the Bucs didn’t rule out anyone, but two players on offense are doubtful and another nine are questionable.

In related news, DT Johnathan Hankins will be activated for the game, and Dallas will need to make a related roster move, in addition to their expected two practice squad elevations prior to the game.

Cowboys keying on interior pressure and resilience against Bucs

The Cowboys defensive tackles speak to the how important their relentlessness will be to forcing Tampa Bay into negative results. | From @ReidDHanson

It’s not exactly breaking news to say Tom Brady’s kryptonite is pressure up the middle. The blueprint to beat the all-time winningest QB has been in place for years and for years he’s been winning regardless. So it should be no surprise the Dallas Cowboys’ interior defensive line is focused on both realities.

First, it’s the desire and fortitude to control the middle of the pocket. Recent statements from Johnathan Hankins indicate he and his fellow defensive tackles know the task at hand.

“I think internally we need to get some pressure on him,” Hankins said. “Not allow him to step up and make passes.”

This season has been Brady’s worst performance under pressure, with a 2:5 TD:INT ratio and a Tampa Bay-high 4.8% rate of turnover-worthy throws when feeling the heat, per Pro Football Focus. However 2022 has been a Tampa Bay-low 19.4% of plays under pressure despite the Buccaneers offensive line issues, so the Cowboys are going to have to get creative with their rush like they did earlier in the season.

Brady relies on a significant step forward when he distributes passes. When the pocket gets pushed up the middle and pressure prevents him from taking that all-important step forward, things fall apart for him.

Again, this is nothing new.

Scouting reports dating back 10-years outline this magic elixir to beat Brady. The key to making it work is knowing it isn’t always going to work. Cowboys starting defensive tackle, Osa Odighizuwa, was asked why he’s better equipped to play Brady and the Buccaneers this time around and he highlighted the resilience factor:

“Being familiar with how quickly the ball is coming out, knowing that, that can’t stop you from rushing, Odighizuwa said. “You’ve just gotta rush.”

He went on to describe how many players on film appear to slow down their rush against Brady. His quick release is discouraging to them and they alter their attack because of it.

“Just keep rushing, rushing, not getting there,” Odighizuwa explained. “But you’ve just got to keep going. You’ve got to keep going. And like I said, if we’re executing at a high level, he’s going to have to hold onto the ball and eventually you’re going to get home.”

Both tackles spoke of creating pressure up the middle, both highlighted Brady’s desire to step up into his passes and both discussed that they aren’t expecting a windfall of sacks.

With managed expectations, the Cowboys interior linemen know they must be resilient and work to attack the middle of the pocket every down. On most occasions it won’t work. Brady has made a career not letting that work. But if they don’t allow themselves to become discouraged and don’t let fruitless efforts slow them down, they will eventually “get home.”

Same blueprint but a different attitude.

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6 things to know about the Buccaneers for the Cowboys’ second go round

The Buccaneers are more than just Tom Brady, here’s what else to know the opponent for the Dallas Cowboys in the wild card matchup. | From @BenGrimaldi

The fun and games are over; the real season begins now for the Dallas Cowboys. Playoff success is what Cowboys seasons are judged upon and despite low expectations to start, this year is no different. Many left the team for dead after the Week 1 injury to quarterback Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys surprised and got to 12 wins.

It was improbable, but now that Dallas has shown they can wins games and be discussed as one of the top teams, rabid fans want more. There’s a faction of Cowboys fans that need a final four showing to validate this franchise.

A playoff run will have to start with beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and legendary quarterback Tom Brady.. The Cowboys want just a piece of what Brady has accomplished in the postseason and that journey begins on Monday night. Here’s are six things to know about the wild-card opponent for the Cowboys.

First down running plays are killing the Cowboys

The Cowboys have called far too many unsuccessful running plays on first down and must adapt to what’s working and avoid what isn’t. | From @ReidDHanson

Measuring success is not always the easiest thing to do in life. What can be seen as a success to one person, could look like total failure to another. Different goals and different expectations bring on different verdicts. In the NFL, defining success is rather simple.

The Cowboys, just like all NFL teams, want to score points on offense and stop teams from scoring on defense. At their core, sports are a simple concept. So it stands to reason, the plays that increase an offense’s chances of scoring are deemed successful and the plays that reduce the scoring probability are labeled unsuccessful (and then the inverse of that to assess defensive performance, play to play).

From this perspective, success rate is born. Plays that increase scoring probability are defined as “successful” and the frequency of these plays is the “success rate.”

The degree in which a play is successful is measured by expected points added (or EPA). Positive EPAs are successful plays and negative EPAs are unsuccessful plays. Large EPA numbers indicate big plays that changed scoring probability while small EPA numbers indicate lesser plays that increased scoring probability.

Why does all of this matter?

It’s important to know what’s working and what’s not working. And right now, first down runs are NOT working for the Dallas Cowboys.