Murray has earned an extension — but his value could dip with a challenging 2022 ahead.
Kyler Murray just wants what every young quarterback dreams of; a playoff-ready roster and a chance to be the highest-paid player in NFL history.
Almost every spring is the backdrop for emerging passers to scrape the limits of the salary cap. Paying a quarterback is an expensive luxury for teams who’ve found their franchise passer. In recent years we’ve seen seven different quarterbacks earn at least $40 million in annual average salary thanks to high profile contracts. That includes players coming off their relatively inexpensive rookie deals like Dak Prescott and Josh Allen.
Murray wants to be next, but negotiations with the Arizona Cardinals have gone roughly as well as you’d expect after the former top overall pick scrubbed, then restored, all mentions of his team from social media last season. Without a deal on the horizon, Murray’s ready to run through the contract standoff playbook in hopes of securing a lucrative extension. The next step? Skipping voluntary official team activities early in the offseason.
It’s a card Murray needs to play. He has little leverage over Arizona and is under contract with the club through 2023. The Cardinals could then give him the Kirk Cousins treatment and franchise tag him for 2024 and possibly again in 2025.
That guaranteed money would add up. Murray is due roughly $36 million in salary the next two years. A 2024 season under the tag would probably cost around $33.4 million and, with the 120 percent bump attached to a second-straight year as a franchise designatee, $40.1 million in 2025. All told, Arizona knows it can likely wring four years out of its quarterback at a total cost of $109.5 million. That would almost certainly create irreparable damage the relationship between the quarterback and the franchise that drafted him — see Cousins’ experience with Washington — but would also give the Cardinals the chance to hit eject in any offseason after 2023 at sub-market rates.
Per Spotrac, seven quarterbacks — including Jared Goff! — currently have contracts with more than $110 million in practical guarantees attached. That’s likely the number Murray and his management team are trying to eclipse. While they’ll shoot for Aaron Rodgers-type value, it’s reasonable to think they’d settle for a Dak Prescott-ian extension (four years, $160 million) for a player who’s currently 22-24-1 as a starter overall.
It would greatly behoove Murray to get this done before the 2022 season begins. His fourth season as a pro could be rough.
He’s already set to play the first six games of the year without WR1 DeAndre Hopkins, who’ll serve out a PED suspension. Here’s how his numbers fell last season with and without the All-Pro wideout at the top of his depth chart:
Murray’s passer rating dropped by nearly 25 full points without Hopkins in the lineup. While there will be some extra backup among the team’s wideouts thanks to a draft night trade for Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Brown will likely inherit the spot Christian Kirk left behind to chase a four-year, $72 million deal with the Jaguars this offseason (lol, Jags). The rest of the wideout chart features a 34-year-old AJ Green, Rondale Moore (whose average reception came behind the line of scrimmage last fall), and Andy Isabella (if he makes the team).
The Cardinals did add a top tight end prospect to the roster by drafting Colorado State’s Trey McBride, he’ll either have to share snaps with Zach Ertz or tonally transform head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s vertical offense by incorporating way more two-TE sets. It’s fair to think Murray could struggle to begin the season without Hopkins and tasked with incorporating a new WR1 and TE2 into an offense he didn’t run much in 2021.
Murray’s regression also came as part of an unfortunate Arizona tradition under Kingsbury. The Cardinals are 8-16 in the last three seasons when it comes to the final eight games of the year. The 2020 team ran out to a 6-3 start and missed the playoffs at 8-8. The 2021 version was 10-2 after Week 13 and went 1-5 from that point to flail out of the Wild Card round (notably without Hopkins in the lineup).
Murray’s play has been part of that, but Kingbury has struggled to make the in-season adjustments his peers have en route to sustained playoff runs. The Cardinals’ defense seems to tire as well. Arizona gave up only 18.4 points per game before its Week 12 bye last season and 28.3 in the seven games that followed. In 2020 that unit allowed 20.9 points per game before its bye and 24.6 afterward.
This points to a challenging year for the young quarterback. One that will be broadcast to a wider audience than usual thanks to Hard Knocks’ arrival in Glendale:
There’s a chance Murray rises above all this and delivers an undeniable season anyway. He’s followed a fairly steady growth curve when it comes to his passer rating through his three years as a pro and though his running efficiency diminished in 2021 he’s still a devastating scrambling threat. He could bet on himself and earn eight figures worth of extra guaranteed money if he can fight through adversity and not only lead the Cardinals back to the postseason but make noise once there.
History suggests that won’t be the case, however. Murray has been dealt a bad hand for 2022 and might not be able to spin it in his favor. The upcoming season could damage his value for reasons not fully under his control.
That’s why it makes sense to hold out now in search of the nine-figure guarantee befitting a franchise cornerstone. Murray isn’t perfect, but he’s a homegrown Pro Bowl quarterback for a franchise who hasn’t had one of those since Neil Lomax was slinging the ball in St. Louis. There’s a middle ground that works for both sides not far under the surface of these cat-and-mouse negotiations. Finding it sooner rather than later is in everyone’s best interest.
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