Tag: 2021 MLB draft

Here’s why the Gators were iced out of The Athletic’s latest MLB mock draft

Tommy Mace and Jud Fabian had underwhelming 2021 seasons, and that seems to have left the pair on the fringe of the Day 1 discussion.

The 2021 MLB draft has been pushed back from its normal early June date to mid-July, giving the opinions of both the league and draft-adjacent media plenty of time to simmer. For players on the edge of first-round consideration, that means seeing their name bobbed endlessly in and out of mock drafts leading up to the event.

Florida stars Tommy Mace and Jud Fabian are in exactly that situation. Both are talented enough to have secured likely positions in the top 30 with better performances during the college 2021 season. However, the Gators’ infuriating inconsistency stemmed largely from that of their cornerstone players, a demographic that squarely includes both Fabian and Mace.

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Both were excluded from the most recent mock draft produced by The Athletic.

Between the two, Fabian is the more likely to creep his way back into the top group. He’s a good athlete, and as a center fielder with a power stroke, he presents an interesting package of tools. Unfortunately, there’s almost no track record for players who strike out as much as he did in college having success in pro ball.

It’s such an alarming red flag that it will literally cost him millions of dollars – he was projected as a top-five pick entering the season, but there’s virtually no chance of that happening now. However, he’s too good at too many other things that some team will scoop him up before he falls too far.

Mace has the potential for a much further slide. The appeal for a player like Mace is his quick path to the MLB as an accomplished and straightforward pitcher. With the effectiveness of his fastball and quality of his breaking balls in question, though, teams could get very skittish.

The more likely route for the Gators to be part of the Day 1 discussion is for one of their recruits to find a home in the first round. The Athletic projects two players committed to play in Gainesville to be drafted – outfielder Jay Allen and pitcher Andrew Painter.

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MLB.com says Ohio State pitcher Seth Lonsway has best curveball of top prospects

Ohio State pitcher Seth Lonsway was ranked with having the best curveball of all top prospects heading into the MLB draft.

The College World Series is in full swing and the MLB draft is less than a month away. Many collegiate and high school players hope to hear their name called seeking to take another step in fulfilling dreams of making it to the big leagues.

One of those players is Ohio State pitcher Seth Lonsway. His numbers don’t look great on the surface, posting a 3-5 record with a 4.37 ERA. However, the southpaw hurler would strike out 98 batters in only 68 innings of work in 2021. And that is what is catching the attention of scouts.

MLB.com recently listed some of the best prospects heading into the draft, high school superlative style. Lonsway made the list with the honor of “best curveball”.

Jim Callis of MLB.com had some glowing remarks about the lefty and compared him to a former Major League All-Star with a killer curve.

“Lonsway rode his curveball to 98 strikeouts in 68 innings this spring, generating an impressive 52 percent swing-and-miss rate. He uses a high arm slot to stay on top of his bender, which combines low-80s power and depth, reminding some scouts of Barry Zito’s trademark curve.” Callis said

Lonsway is currently ranked as the 150th best prospect in the 2021 draft. However, with a dominant breaking ball and a heater that touches the mid-90’s, the Buckeye pitcher could end up being a steal for a team looking to add an arm to its pitching prospects.

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes and opinion.

 

Jud Fabian, two Gators commits picked in Baseball America first-round mock

Florida is set to lose serious talent in the 2021 MLB draft, starting in the first round with the team’s slugger and a pair of recruits.

The draft-eligible Gators on the 2021 squad largely didn’t have the seasons they needed to vault into consideration for the first few picks. There a handful of players with connections to Florida who could find a way into the first round, though. Exactly that happened in the scenario presented in Baseball America’s latest first-round mock draft.

The most well-known player to Gators fans who was selected in the exercise was the last one selected – outfielder Jud Fabian. The Gators’ best hitter during the 2021 season, Fabian was selected for the All-SEC first team. He’s a power hitter who draws walks and is athletic enough to at least get a shot in center. Pervasive issues with strikeouts drove Fabian, once considered a top prospect in this class, down to the 26th pick, where the Twins stopped his fall.

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The fit between the Twins and Fabian couldn’t be more natural. Minnesota has a knack for developing slugging outfielders and enjoys the relative security of drafting high-profile college hitters. It’s hard to point to a player who overcame such severe strikeout issues in recent drafts, but Fabian has everything else and he’d be landing in a great organization for what he needs.

The other two players drafted in this hypothetical first round who should interest Gators fans were both premium Florida commits. Right-handed pitchers Chase Petty and Andrew Painter have both agreed to play in Gainesville, but they need to get through the draft first.

Painter is described by Baseball America as having “perhaps the best command in the high school class.” He’s not strictly (a) touch-and-feel pitcher, though. His fastball and changeup are both out pitches and he can mix in a pair of respectable breaking balls. The Yankees selected him 20th overall in this mock draft.

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Petty has some of the most electrifying stuff of any high schooler we’ve seen in a while, but teams are becoming more and more skittish when it comes to hard-throwing prep players. Nonetheless, it’s hard to ignore a starter whose fastball velocity kisses triple digits and dishes a plus breaking ball. He’s mocked to the White Sox at 22nd overall.

Should either Petty or Painter get to campus, it would be a huge win for the Gators baseball program. They’d immediately be considered contenders for the top pick in 2024. Florida has a good track record with developing pitching and the washout rate of college pitchers dwarfs that of their younger counterparts.

Current Gators ace Tommy Mace and Gators commit outfielder Jay Allen, both considered fringy first-round prospects, were left in the cold in this mock. The odds are that both are drafted and turn pro this summer, but in this scenario, they’re left to the supplemental first and second round.

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Florida outfielder Jud Fabian named to 2021 All-SEC first team

Florida’s slugging outfielder Jud Fabian had a standout year for the Gators, earning a place among the best the SEC has to offer.

Jud Fabian hasn’t had the year many expected for the Florida Gators in what will likely be his final run with the program, but his contributions to the team couldn’t be ignored. The 20-year-old’s season-long stats stand out on the page, he hit a lofty .262/.376/.621 and clubbed 20 home runs.

His achievements were enough to catch the eye of voters during the selection of All-SEC awards. Fabian was placed on the All-SEC first team, joined by fellow outfielders Enrique Bradfield Jr. of Vanderbilt and Tanner Allen of Mississippi State. Fabian was the only Gator to crack the first or second-team roster.

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Some of the more impressive college performances are hand-waved for being small sample, but his performance wasn’t driven by luck. One indication as to whether a player was more or less fortunate in any given frame of time is his batting average on balls in play. The expected figure over a representative sample of at-bats is .300.

Deviation from that mark indicates that a player may have been playing above or below his true talent level. Fabian’s batting average on balls in play during the 2021 season was .284, which suggests he completely earned his impressive slash line.

It wasn’t all sunshine for the Orange and Blue slugger during the 2021 season. He carried a strikeout rate north of 30% through most of the season and saw his national perception as a draft prospect nosedive as a result. There’s virtually no track record of success in the pros for players with that kind of swing and miss at the college level.

One high-profile example is Jeren Kendall. He was an athletically gifted power/speed prospect with center field instincts from Vanderbilt drafted by the Dodgers. If there was ever a situation to bet on an outlier, it was this. Now he’s 25 years old unable to find his footing in pro ball due in part to his astounding strikeout rate.

Nonetheless, Fabian draft-eligible is likely done with his Florida career. He’ll leave a legacy of success and a highlight reel of impressive catches and electrifying at-bats. His stock as a first-year pro player will be questionable, but for now, he’s one of the brightest stars of the SEC and he deserves every bit of it.

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