2021 Farmers Insurance Open matchups and prop bet predictions

Assessing the best PGA Tour prop bets for the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open, with betting predictions for the top tournament matchups.

The PGA Tour’s west coast swing continues with this week’s Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Course just outside of San Diego, California. A strong field includes four of the top seven golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings. Below, we’ll look for the best value bets in the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open betting odds, with tournament matchups, placings and other PGA Tour prop bet predictions.

The tournament will be split between Torrey Pines’ North and South Courses. Both play to a par of 72 but the North Course measures just 7,258 yards and the South Course is 7,765 yards.

2021 Farmers Insurance Open: Matchup bets

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:06 p.m. ET.

Jon Rahm vs. Rory McIlroy (+105)

The marquee matchup of the tournament pits Golfweek’s No. 3 and 7 golfers against each other for the lowest 72-hole score. McIlroy’s coming off a third-place finish at the European Tour’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, while Rahm was forced to withdraw from last week’s American Express due to a back injury.

McIlroy didn’t win last year, but he had a T-3 finish in this event and six other top 10s in 17 total events without a missed cut. Rahm, who won here in 2017 and finished as the runner-up last year, had two PGA Tour victories in 2020.

Both golfers have an affinity for this course, so take the value with McIlroy.

Also see:

Scottie Scheffler vs. Jason Day (-110)

Day, a two-time winner of this event, is a slight underdog against Scheffler, who missed the cut in his debut in this event last year. Day showed flashes of his former world No. 1 form last summer upon on the PGA Tour’s restart and finished the 2019-20 season with 0.26 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 0.77 SG: Tee-to-Green per round.

That form with his driver and irons will play well at a course where he has had plenty of success on the greens.

2021 Farmers Insurance Open: Placing bets

Top 5: Gary Woodland (+1000)

Woodland missed the cut here last year following his 2019 US Open win at Pebble Beach Golf Links, but he was T-9 in 2019 and T-10 in 2014. He tied for 16th last week with a strong 0.90 SG: Off-the-Tee per round.

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Top 10: J.B. Holmes (+1600)

Holmes doesn’t have a top-5 finish on Tour since winning the Genesis Invitational in 2019, but he has finished sixth or better in three of his last six trips to Torrey Pines. He was T-16 last year with 1.59 SG: Putting per round and routinely putts well on the Poa Annua surfaces featured on the South Course greens.

Top Continental European: Francesco Molinari (+1100)

Molinari is third in this pool behind Rahm (-150) and Viktor Hovland (+350). We’re hedging against potential injury trouble for Rahm and Hovland’s inexperience at the upcoming 2021 US Open venue. Molinari impressed with a T-8 finish while gaining 1.33 strokes per round from tee-to-green last week.

2021 Farmers Insurance Open: Prop bet

Scheffler, Day and Koepka all to make the cut (+175)

Koepka seems to be the biggest risk in this parlay after missing the cut last week at PGA West. He was putting well but struggled on approach to the green and will play this event for the first time since 2017 while preparing for the year’s third major. Look for him to bring his best game to one of the PGA Tour’s most famous courses.

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