Updated look at the ESPN Matchup Predictor after the Sooners win over Texas

How did the win probabilities change for the Oklahoma Sooners after their win over the Texas Longhorns in week 6?

The Oklahoma Sooners are in the midst of a dramatic turnaround. From 6-7 a year ago to 6-0 to start the 2023 season, OU is on track to be one of the best stories in college football.

There’s a great deal of work still to be done by the Sooners heading into their bye week, but with the Texas Longhorns out of the way, Oklahoma has a shot to get back to the Big 12 title game and maybe more.

After the 34-30 win over Texas, here’s a look at how the Sooners’ win probabilities changed for each of their matchups for the rest of the season according to the ESPN Matchup Predictor.

The Voice of Iowa State talks about why the Cyclones have had recent success vs. the Oklahoma Sooners

Iowa State is one of the few teams that has had success vs. OU recently. The Voice of the Cyclones might have the reason for that.

Since [autotag]Iowa State Cyclones[/autotag] Head Coach [autotag]Matt Campbell[/autotag] took over in 2016, the Cyclones are one of the few teams in the Big 12 that have given Oklahoma fits. Whether that’s knocking off the Sooners in 2017 and 2020 in the regular season or playing them to one-score games in 2019, [autotag]2020 Big 12 championship[/autotag] or 2021.

In fact, the largest margin of victory for the Sooners during that time frame was 14 points just last season. It’s not just been in Ames, either. The Cyclones have had success in Norman as well. Campbell’s teams have made a trip to Norman three times. The margin of victory is +1 in Oklahoma’s favor.

The Voice of the Cyclones, John Walters, joined us on my podcast, Eat. Sleep. Bedlam. to talk about why that might be.

“In the history of this series, if you can avoid turnovers and playing your way right into Oklahoma’s hand and make them earn things offensively, which they’re good at doing, but make them earn it, don’t just hand them stuff, then I think you give yourself a chance,” Walter said. “That’s what Iowa State teams had a hard time doing for a lot of years. Matt’s always been about that detail-oriented stuff, the hidden yards just like how Kansas State tries to win.”

That last line is the key one because it’s not a coincidence the two toughest teams for Oklahoma in the last few years have been Iowa State and Kansas State. It’s because they play similar styles.

Will this year be any different, though?

Iowa State has struggled, especially on offense, for most of 2023. However, they’ve been great defensively. Then came last week against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Iowa State’s offense woke up, but the defense struggled.

“They feel like they have something in Rocco Becht,” Walters said. “He’s still just a redshirt freshman. He’s a very young player who played just a handful of snaps just a year ago, but I think they feel they have something there. But they’ve been trying to slowly bring him along and not put too much on his plate. Maybe add a little bit more each week. Last week they added a significant amount, and he handled it well. He had three touchdown passes, no interceptions, and wasn’t sacked.”

Becht looked very good in the win vs. Oklahoma State. Now, was that because of Oklahoma State or because of Becht? Who knows. But he still had to make the plays that were there to make, and he did. But with a young quarterback, doing that consistently is the key. So, we’ll see if he can carry over that performance to this week against the Sooners.

Ultimately, this is a game many assume Oklahoma will roll because they believe Iowa State isn’t a very good football team. But if recent history has told us anything, this will be a lot closer than many believe.

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