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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet in Super Bowl LIV Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Here at SportsbookWire, we have you covered for all your prop betting needs for the big game.
Forget the one-player, one-Over/Under stat total prop bets. Check out the board at BetMGM, and we find four different Super Bowl LIV passing yards totals and their respective odds for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET.
- Over 200.5: -250; Under 200.5: +195
- Over 238.5: -112; Under 238.5: -112
- Over 300.5: +330; Under 300.5: -435
- Over 350.5: +1000; Under 350.5: -2500
Of course, Jimmy G’s passing stats – or rather, the lack of them – have been a hot topic this postseason as he’s completed 17-of-27 passes for 208 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Those are two-game totals, mind you, as the Niners have employed a whopping 89-30 run-to-pass-play ratio, throwing the game back to the ground-and-pound 1970s.
With San Francisco ripping off 5.3 yards per rushing attempt and the opposing offenses of the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers mustering only 17 total points through the first three quarters, Garoppolo really hasn’t needed to throw in the postseason, so he hasn’t – plain and simple.
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The key question for us in deciding how to wager on this passing-yards prop is figuring out what’s likely to happen when the 49ers defense faces more of an offensive challenge than what it has received thus far in the postseason from Kirk Cousins and a less-than-vintage Aaron Rodgers.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs ranked fifth in the league with an average of 28.2 points per game during the regular season. The Chiefs have gone on to score 86 more points in two AFC playoff wins. With the Chiefs favored by 1.5 points and the game’s point total sitting at 54.5 as of Tuesday, Kansas City’s implied point total Sunday is 28.
When the opposition has scored even 21 or more points this season (seven games), Garoppolo has averaged 35.1 passing attempts, 24 completions and 295.9 passing yards per outing. He has thrown for at least 248 yards in six of those seven contests (five wins and two losses), including all three of his 300-plus-yard games, and no fewer than 200 in any of them.
Flipping things around, the Niners’ implied point total Sunday is 26.5, and in the 10 games this season, including the two playoff contests, in which KC has surrendered at least 21 points, the Chiefs have allowed an average of 274.4 passing yards. Note this is the average from the opposing quarterbacks and not the team passing yards, which deducts the yardage lost on sacks.
So that brings us to …
Our best bet: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 238.5 passing yards (-112)
The Niners figure to have a decent amount of success running against a KC defense, which ranked seventh-worst against the run (128.2 yards allowed) during the regular season, but has tightened up during the playoffs in allowing an average of 89.5 yards per contest.
Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Co. are going to put up points, and Garoppolo is going to have to air it out in an attempt to keep pace. Throwing for at least 239 yards would appear to be a strong bet – my quick and dirty projection has Jimmy G finishing with 285 or so – and if you’re feeling frisky, go for the middle by also banging the Under 300.5 yards, although you’ll have to lay a hefty -435 to do so.
Also see:
- Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide
- Super Bowl LIV: 7 player prop bets to cash in on
- 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl odds: Chiefs slight favorites over 49ers
Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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