The St. Louis Cardinals (29-43) open a 3-game series with the Washington Nationals (27-43) Monday. First pitch from Nationals Park is at 4:05 ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; Cardinals won 4-3 last year
The Nationals had very little hope to start the year and are on pace to fall well short of 70 victories. Washington lost 4-2 to the Miami Marlins Sunday as Miami completed a 3-game sweep.
The Cardinals won the NL Central last year but find themselves at the bottom of the pack as we creep toward the halfway point of the season. The good news — if there is any — is their run differential is just -15, the 2nd-best mark in the division. St. Louis beat the New York Mets 8-7 Sunday to win the series 2-1 but has only won 4 of its last 10 games and could use a strong series against Washington to get a little spark going.
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Cardinals at Nationals projected starters
RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Josiah Gray
Flaherty (3-5, 4.64 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 73 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 3 B, 3 K in an 11-3 home loss to the San Fransisco Giants Tuesday
- Has not given up a home run when ahead in the count this season
Gray (4-5, 3.19 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 79 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in a 5-4 road loss at the Houston Astros Wednesday
- Has a .222 opponent batting average when the batter is ahead of the count
Cardinals at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Nationals +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Cardinals at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 4, Cardinals 1
Moneyline
St. Louis has the 2nd worst win percentage in MLB as a road favorite this season, and it’s just 11-17 off a win — the 5th worst mark in the league. Considering that Washington has won 4 of its last 5 games against the NL Central, I see the value in taking the home team.
LEAN NATIONALS (+125).
Run line/Against the spread
Since I am taking Washington to win I certainly like them against the spread with the run and a half of insurance. The Nationals 25-17 ATS after a loss while St. Louis is 12-16 ATS after a win.
BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-120).
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Over/Under
St. Louis trends heavily toward the Under with a 62.2% hit rate (23-14-1) on the road. Pair that with Washington’s recent 5-1 Under record when the total is set between 9 and 10.5 runs, and I see another low-scoring game.
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-105).
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