The St. Louis Cardinals (16-10) continue their 4-game series with the San Francisco Giants (14-12) Saturday at Oracle Park. First pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Cardinals won the first 2 games of this series: 7-1 Thursday and 3-2 Friday. St. Louis’s bullpen has been stellar vs. San Francisco, working 8-scoreless IP with 7 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
Cardinals at Giants projected starters
LHP Steven Matz vs. RHP Logan Webb
Matz (3-1, 4.56 ERA) beat the Kansas City Royals Monday 1-0, throwing 6 IP with 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
- He has a 2.11 FIP, 1.44 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 in 23 2/3 IP over 5 starts.
Webb (3-1, 3.26 ERA) beat the Washington Nationals 9-3 last Saturday, throwing 6 IP, allowing 3 ER on 11 H and 1 BB with 3 K.
- Has a 2.78 FIP, 1.29 WHIP and 5.9 K/9 in 30 1/3 IP across 5 starts.
- 2021 vs. Cardinals: One start — a no-decision in a 7-2 Giants road victory July 16 with 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
Cardinals at Giants odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Giants -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-210) | Giants -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Cardinals at Giants picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Giants 2
Money line
BET the CARDINALS (+110) for 1.25 units for a plethora of reasons.
The Giants have a 3-1 overall record vs. left-handed starters but rank 26th in both wRC+ (79) and wOBA (.272) and 24th in hard-hit rate (26.2%) against lefties, per FanGraphs. Matz also deals in May and has impressive pitching peripherals against San Francisco’s lineup albeit in a limited sample size.
May is Matz’s best month by winning percentage (69.2%), ERA (2.66), WHIP (1.18) and K/BB rate (3.76). He has a 1.49 FIP against the Giants in 20 plate appearances with a 25.0 K% and .250/.258/.281 expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage, according to Statcast.
There’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards St. Louis in the betting market. Nearly 80% of the action is on the Giants but San Francisco’s ML has fallen from -151 down to the current price, per Pregame.com.
This RLM-situation is even more suspicious because the Giants are 16-0 at home with Webb getting the start since the beginning of last season.
BET the CARDINALS (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a slight “lean” towards the Cardinals +0.5 First 5-Inning RL (-140) based on the previous analysis. However, it’s a little out of my price range considering Webb has been a lock at home over the last year.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+105) because I’m high on both starters, San Francisco can’t hit lefties, both bullpens are top-10 in xFIP over the last 2 weeks (according to FanGraphs) and most of the market is on the Over (per Pregame.com) so we have a contrarian angle.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+105) because the total is so low and my favorite bet in this game is St. Louis’s ML.
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