The St. Louis Cardinals (14-12) tangle with NL Central rival Pittsburgh Pirates (12-13) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis handled Pittsburgh in the series opener 7-3 yesterday for a fourth straight victory over the Pirates dating back to last season.
Season series: Cardinals 1-0.
RHP Jack Flaherty is making his fifth start for the Cardinals. Flaherty is 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 6 K’s in St. Louis’s 5-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
- Career vs. the Pirates: 6-0 with a 1.89 ERA (57 IP, 12 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 9 starts.
RHP Trevor Cahill is the projected starter for the Pirates. Cahill is 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA (19 IP, 15 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 across 4 starts in his first season with the Pirates.
- Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB’s and 2 K’s in Pittsburgh’s 6-2 win at the Minnesota Twins last Saturday.
- Career vs. the Cardinals: 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 in 4 starts and 2 relief appearances.
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Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+120) | Pirates +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Pirates 5, Cardinals 4
Money line (ML)
These money line prices feel sketchy. The Cardinals (-145) has their undefeated Ace on the mound against a Pirates (+120) team that has been one of the laughingstocks in MLB.
Flaherty has never lost to Pittsburgh, is off to a phenomenal start this season and St. Louis is 21-9 against the Pirates since 2019.
However, Flaherty’s advanced pitching numbers suggest he’s going to come back down to Earth a bit. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate, fly ball rate and ground ball to fly ball rate are all worse than the MLB average.
Also, opposing hitters have a .225 BAbip vs. Flaherty, 72 percentage points higher than the league average.
Furthermore, Statcast grades Flaherty out in the 19th percentile in chase%, 37th percentile in whiff% and 39th percentile in expected wOBA.
Lastly, the Cardinals’ lineup is terrible against right-handed pitching; St. Louis hitters have the fifth-lowest wRC+, is 23rd in wOBA and the fourth-lowest hard-hit rate against righties.
Slight “LEAN” to the PIRATES (+120) for a quarter unit if at all because Pittsburgh’s run line is much better value.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the PIRATES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit at the current price point, but I’d wait until closer to the first pitch before placing my bet on this game because I think the Pittsburgh price gets cheaper throughout the day.
The Cardinals definitely have the edge in the starting pitcher matchup but, the Pirates’ bullpen is top-6 in K-BB%, WHIP, xFIP and SIERA, so Pittsburgh could cut into any lead Flaherty turns over to the St. Louis ‘pen.
Over/Under (O/U)
I’ve already outlined why Flaherty is due for a bad outing, but, also Cahill is the least productive when pitching on six or more days rest.
Cahill’s ERA and WHIP are higher than any other rest split and his winning percentage is the lowest (8-17 overall record) compared to other rest splits.
“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (+100) for a quarter unit only because I prefer the Pittsburgh side more than the total.
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