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The St. Louis Cardinals (35-35) take on the Miami Marlins (23-48) Monday in the opener of a 3-game set at loanDepot park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cards lead 2-1
Who has the best record in the NL since Mother’s Day? If you answered the St. Louis Cardinals, you’d be correct. They are 20-11 in their last 31 games and have done it with solid pitching and just enough hitting to get by. They took 2 of 3 in Wrigley Field over the weekend as rookie C Pedro Pages hit his first 2 MLB homers to down the Chicago Cubs.
The Marlins have let it be known they’re waving the white flag and open for business on tradeable assets. They have lost 5 in a row and were outscored 28-8 in the process. In other words, it feels bad in South Florida right about now. CF Jazz Chisholm Jr. is having a productive season at .260 with 10 homers, 24 total extra-base hits, 34 RBIs and 13 steals.
Cardinals at Marlins projected starters
RHP Sonny Gray vs. LHP Braxton Garrett
Gray (8-4, 3.01 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 68 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 4-2 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday
- Career vs. Marlins: 3-0, 2.48 ERA (29 IP, 8 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 5 starts
Garrett (2-2, 6.10 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 31 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER (6 R), 7 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 10-4 setback at New York Mets Wednesday
- Career vs. Cardinals: 0-1, 6.14 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 14 K in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Cardinals at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:09 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+110) | Marlins +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Cardinals at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Marlins 2
Moneyline
The Cards are at a solid price here with a big advantage in the starting pitchers. Gray went through a rough patch, but he was sensational in his last start in matching a season-high 7 innings. He has allowed 8 runs in 5 career games against Miami — and 5 of those runs came in a single start 10 years ago.
Take CARDINALS (-155) as they feel a little underpriced.
Run line/Against the spread
The Cards are 18-20 on the RL on the road. That is also their road record. I do not trust them to cover here. At game #71 on the year, they’re 11-9 in 1-run games. Closer Ryan Helsley leads the majors with 25 saves because they play so many close games.
Gray has 7+ K’s in 3 of his last 4 starts. He went through some control woes that led to walks, got his pitch counts up and sabotaged him along the way. He had 1 BB last start and seems to have righted that ship. Take SONNY GRAY OVER 6.5 K’s (-130).
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Over/Under
The Cards have scored just 15 runs in their last 6 games but managed to go 4-2 in the process. They’re 2-8 O/U over the last 10 games, and the Marlins are 4-6. This is a really low figure, but these offenses don’t move the needle enough to consider an Over.
Take UNDER 7 (+100).
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