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The St. Louis Cardinals (35-51) and Miami Marlins (51-37) play the finale of a 4-game set Thursday at loanDepot park. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 3-0
The Cardinals dropped Wednesday’s game 10-9 and it was the epitome of their season. They trailed 5-0 after 2 innings and stormed back to tie it in the 5th. Miami took the lead, St. Louis tied it, and Miami got the lead again. OF Jordan Walker hit a 2-run home run to take the lead in the 9th, which should have been the highlight of his career, and the Cards blow the save in the 9th and lose. They’re 11-19 over the last 30 games and 12 1/2 games out in the weak NL Central.
Miami has been really impressive for a young team. The Marlins probably need a power bat or 2 at the trade deadline, but they can play. They’re 21-9 over the last 30 games. They’re 8 games out in the NL East, but they hold a 3 1/2-game lead on the top Wild-Card spot.
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Cardinals at Marlins projected starters
RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Eury Perez
Flaherty (5-5, 4.60 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 86 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K Saturday against the New York Yankees
- 3 career starts vs. Marlins: 1-2, 3.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 20 K in 18 IP
Perez (5-2, 2.47 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 47 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 0 K Saturday against the Atlanta Braves
- Had a 1.34 ERA before that miserable start
- Great at home: 3-0, 1.01 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 36 K in 26 2/3 IP; 2-2, 4.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 18 K in 20 2/3 IP on road
Cardinals at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-190) | Marlins -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cardinals at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Cardinals 3
Moneyline
The Cardinals routinely struggle against pitchers they see for the 1st time, and Perez has been phenomenal outside of his last start. It should serve as a piece of humble pie, and he should contain the drowning Cards. Yeah, it’s hard to beat a team 4 straight times, but this Cardinals team continues to find ways to lose.
Take the MARLINS -125.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m going to shy away from the RL here because St. Louis has kept it within a run in 2 of the 3 games in this series, but they’re too expensive to do it again.
One prop I love is EURY PEREZ OVER 15.5 OUTS (-125). He went 6 innings in 3 straight starts before he was shelled in his last outing. He’ll dominate the Cards for at least 1 out into the 6th inning.
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Over/Under
We had the Over cash in the 1st 3 games of this series, and I really want to lean toward the Under, but I don’t trust St. Louis’ bullpen to keep it Under 8.
Instead, let’s make a small, reachable parlay for some plus-money. Take the MARLINS + EURY PEREZ 5 K’s (+120). Before his last start, he had 5+ K’s in 5 straight starts. Again, the Cards can’t hit pitchers they see for the first time – especially ones with Perez’s stuff.
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