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The St. Louis Cardinals (60-60) and Cincinnati Reds (59-61) play the finale of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park Wednesday at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 5-4
We cashed all 3 bets here Tuesday as RHP Hunter Greene shut down a flailing Cards offense. A meaningless solo homer from 3B Nolan Arenado was the only blemish the Cardinals could attain on Greene, who struck out 9 over 7 IP of 1-run ball. The Cardinals are circling the drain at the worst time, losing 3 in a row and 8 of 12.
The Reds have won 3 straight and outscored opponents 14-5 in the process. OF Spencer Steer is 9-for-19 (.474) with 3 homers and 9 RBIs in his last 6 games. The Reds have won 6 of 10 and have pulled within 4½ games of a Wild Card spot.
Cardinals at Reds projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Emilio Pagan
Gibson (7-4, 3.99 ERA) makes his 23rd start of the season. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 126 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-4 home loss Thursday against Tampa Bay Rays
- Three career starts vs. Reds: 2-0, 5.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22 K in 16 2/3 IP
- May 28 at GABP: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-1 victory
Pagan (2-3, 4.22 ERA) makes his 1st start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 0 K (16 pitches) in relief appearance of 4-3 victory Sunday at Milwaukee Brewers
- Career vs. Cardinals (regular season): 0-1, 11.25 ERA (4 IP, 5 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 4 relief appearances
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Cardinals at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Reds -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+140) | Reds +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Cardinals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Reds 4
Moneyline
The Reds are going with a bullpen game, and this take is more about a team can’t be this bad, rather than confidence they’ll figure it out. The Cardinals should not have lost both of these games and looked so pathetic in the process. They should not get swept in a bullpen game. Gibson pitched well in this ballpark earlier this season, and he stops the skid. Take the CARDINALS -115.
Run line/Against the spread
I don’t trust the Cards on the RL, but I do like Gibson’s outlook here. He has 6+ K’s in 3 of 4 starts and fanned 6 Reds in May.
Take KYLE GIBSON OVER 4.5 K’S (-145).
Over/Under
The forecast is pretty much the same as it has been in the series. It’s slated to be 86 degrees with a 6-mph breeze blowing left to right. All 5 games in GABP this season have gone Under. There really hasn’t been any danger or a sweat, either. And with the total at 9.5, I’m good continuing the trend.
Take the UNDER 9.5 (-120).
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