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The St. Louis Cardinals (60-58) take on the Cincinnati Reds (57-61) Monday in the opener of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cardinals lead 4-3
The Cards had a rare Sunday off after splitting a 2-game series at Kansas City. St. Louis lost 8-3 Saturday as a +103 underdog. 1B Paul Goldschmidt (.232, 18 HR, 47 RBIs) is finally showing signs of life in what has been an unimpressive year (.232, 18 HR, 47 RBIs). He’s hitting .277 with 3 homers, 7 RBIs and an .869 OPS in the last 13 games — his OPS for the season is a putrid .686. The Cards need his production as they sit 1½ games out of a Wild Card spot and have a brutal schedule upcoming.
The Reds had a 4-3 road trip and avoided a 3-game sweep in Milwaukee Sunday with a 4-3 victory as +114 underdogs. C Tyler Stephenson is ablaze, hitting .333 with 4 homers and 9 RBIs in his last 8 games. The Reds are 4½ out of a playoff spot, and this will be a pivotal series if they intend to contend.
Cardinals at Reds projected starters
RHP Sonny Gray vs. LHP Andrew Abbott
Gray (11-6, 3.65 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 125 2/3 innings. The veteran pitched for the Reds 2019-21, posting a 23-20 record with a 3.49 ERA in 68 starts. He was an All-Star in 2019.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-3 home victory vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday
- 2024 vs. Reds: 1 home start, loss, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER (6 R), 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 9-4 setback June 29; faced Reds only 1 other time as member of Oakland A’s in 2016 (2-1 loss, 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K)
- Career at Great American Ball Park: 15-10, 3.66 ERA (194 1/3 IP, 79 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 37 starts (1 as a visitor in 2016)
Abbott (9-9, 3.70 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 126 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 6-4 setback at Miami Marlins Wednesday
- Last 5 starts: 0-3, 6.56 ERA, 1.93 WHIP (23 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 8 HR, 22 K
- 2024 vs. Cardinals: 1-1, 6.55 ERA (11 IP, 8 ER), 9 H, 3 HR, 8 BB, 5 K in 2 starts
- Career vs. Cardinals: 2-2, 6.10 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 5.2 K/9 in 4 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Cardinals at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+125) | Reds +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Cardinals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Reds 3
Moneyline
The Reds are meh at home at 28-31 and just 15-17 against the NL Central. Gray hit a bad stretch in June and July (3-4, 4.83 ERA in 10 starts) but has been really good since the calendar turned to August (1-0, 2.57 ERA in 2 starts). He has gone 7 innings in both August outings, allowing 2 runs in each and combined for 15 K’s.
He’ll limit the damage needed for the Cards’ suspect offense to prevail. TAKE CARDINALS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
I don’t like either side of the RL here, but there is a prop that stands out. SONNY GRAY UNDER 1.5 WALKS (+105) at plus-money is a good play. He’s allowed 1 walk or fewer in 7 of his last 8 starts.
Over/Under
It’s slated to be 80 degrees with a light 5-mph breeze blowing out to right-center. All 3 games in GABP between these clubs this season went Under with 5-3, 7-1 and 3-1 finals. I like UNDER 8.5 (-115) Monday night.
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