The Arizona Diamondbacks (54-46) welcome the St. Louis Cardinals (44-56) to Chase Field Monday. First pitch for the opener of this 3-game series is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-1
The Diamondbacks enter on a 4-game losing streak after getting swept in 3 at the Cincinnati Reds and are 2-8 over their last 10 (since the All-Star break). Arizona is 26-24 at home and 4 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the NL West.
The Cardinals are 6-4 since the break but have lost 3 in a row. They just dropped 3 of 4 at the Chicago Cubs, losing the series finale 7-2 Sunday. St. Louis is 22-30 on the road and 11 games back in the NL Central.
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Cardinals at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Adam Wainwright vs. TBD
Wainwright (3-4, 7.66 ERA) is expected to come off the injured list (shoulder irritation) to make his 12th start of the season. He has a 1.99 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 through 51 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 7 R (4 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 15-2 loss at Miami Marlins July 4
- Last 3 starts: Allowed 4 or more ER in 3 straight games, 0-3, 19.13 ERA (8 IP, 17 ER)
- Cardinals are 4-7 in his 11 starts, yet 3-2 in his 5 road starts
- Career vs. D-backs: 11-6, 3.35 ERA (99 1/3 IP, 37 ER), including 0-1 in 1 start last year (6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K in 6-2 home loss)
Arizona hasn’t officially named a starting pitcher, but all signs point to RHP Ryne Nelson (6-5, 4.82 ERA) being given the nod. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 106 1/3 innings (20 starts).
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 5-3 victory at Atlanta Braves Wednesday
- Been on fire lately, yielding 2 or fewer ER in 4 of last 5 starts
- Home splits: 2-4, 8.08 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 38 ER) in 9 starts
- Never faced Cardinals before
Cardinals at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:27 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Diamondbacks -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-165) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Cardinals at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 6, Cardinals 3
Moneyline
BET DIAMONDBACKS (-140).
Arizona has been terrific this season as an ML favorite, going 30-18, according to Teamrankings.com.
It gets even better as a home favorite, in which the organization is 18-10 straight up. With Nelson likely on the mound and pitching well, the Diamondbacks are bound to bounce back after getting swept this past weekend.
St. Louis is 12-16 as a road underdog. The Cardinals are also just 24-31 following a loss, which is the case since they lost at Wrigley Field Sunday.
With the difference in pitchers and performances trends, TAKE DIAMONDBACKS (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no real value here. The Diamondbacks haven’t been great at home and aren’t performing well, so backing them to win by more than a run isn’t quite worth the risk at just +135.
Similarly, Wainwright hasn’t pitched in 20 days and could struggle to contain Arizona. St. Louis getting 1.5 runs is not worth the juice at -165. Ultimately, play Arizona ML to win outright for the best team-specific wager.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 10 (-115).
Arizona’s Under at home has been a consistently good bet this season as the D-backs feature a 19-27-4 O/U home record.
While St. Louis is 49-46-5 on the Over, it’s just 24-29-2 O/U following a loss. Wainwright is rested, which may aid his performance, and Nelson has been dealing lately.
BACK UNDER 10 (-115).
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