A sleeper running back is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.
See also:
Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks
Sleepers and Value Plays: Wide Receivers
Sleepers and Value Plays: Tight Ends
The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.
Average Draft order – Value plays
| ADP | Tm | Running Back | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | Christian McCaffrey | Last year burned many fantasy owners, but his injuries were ankle and thigh, nothing like a torn ACL. When he did play, he was yet again very productive. |
| 2 | MIN | Dalvin Cook | Cook always misses two games or so, but dominates when he plays. Grab Alexander Mattison for the two games and enjoy massive fantasy points in all the rest. |
| 3 | TEN | Derrick Henry | He was unstoppable last season. Cannot fault the pick but he’s also coming off a monstrous 832 touches over the last two years. That’s the sort of volume ended Terrell Davis’ career. He’s bound to be mortal eventually. Probably. Maybe. |
| 4 | NO | Alvin Kamara | Brees is gone but he was diminished the last two years anyway. For the last four seasons, Kamara was Top-4 in all but one when he was injured in 2019. He catches at least 80 passes per year, regardless of quarterback, and a banged up Michael Thomas only means even more dump off passes. |
| 5 | DAL | Ezekiel Elliott | Elliott is usually a Top-5 back and even without Dak Prescott, being hurt himself, and losing most of his O-line, he still ended up as No. 9 last season. The gang is all back. |
| 6 | CLE | Nick Chubb | Chubb may be the best pure runner in the NFL and he works behind the No. 1 offensive line. Only his lack of receptions holds him down this far. |
| 7 | NYG | Saquon Barkley | There are plenty of other backs in the draft. The first round is not where you should be saying “maybe this will turn out okay.” Until more clarity on his health happens – and it almost certainly will not prior to most drafts – then the risk makes Barkley a scary prospect. He never falls far enough to compensate for his risk. |
| 8 | IND | Jonathan Taylor | The rookie blew up for 1,468 total yards and 12 touchdowns to be the No. 6 fantasy back last year. The Wentz situation makes it a little less clear, but Taylor runs behind the No. 2 offensive line and Marlon Mack still is no threat. |
| 9 | LAC | Austin Ekeler | Four years into his career, Ekeler was better than No. 25 only once. The offense that fed him 92 catches in 2019 is long gone. He’s never ran more than 132 times in a season and stayed healthy for just the one Cinderella 2019 blip. |
| 10 | GB | Aaron Jones | This is a good spot for Jones. The return of Aaron Rodgers and great O-line are major positives. The biggest concern is Jones staying healthy and going from the No. 2 rushing schedule strength to the No. 31. Wouldn’t take him any higher. |
| 11 | PIT | Najee Harris | There’s plenty to be wary about with a rookie running back on a team with a terrible O-line and a fading quarterback. But Harris was the first back drafted in April and the only rookie stepping into a heavy workload. He was dynamic at Bama with 1,891 total yards and 30 touchdowns as a senior. Expectations are naturally very high. |
| 12 | WAS | Antonio Gibson | The hybrid-player with only 77 touches in two years at Memphis broke all conventions when he ended as the No. 13 fantasy back last year. He’s drawing even better reviews from camp this year. Maybe a head-scratcher, but one that scores a lot of fantasy points. |
| 13 | KC | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | The Chiefs’ rusher is rising in the rankings for good reason. He missed three games, had no real preseason, and his O-line blew up in 2020. He’s worth a mulligan in the most explosive offense in the NFL. |
| 14 | CIN | Joe Mixon | Missing 10 games with a foot injury last year soured him to many, but the Bengals O-line is improved, the rushing schedule is much better, Giovani Bernard left, and the coaches intend to make Mixon into a workhorse. Worth the risk here. |
| 15 | BAL | J.K. Dobbins | Dobbins proved a force with 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie, and he’s rock solid here. But he doesn’t catch much and the Ravens are committed to their committee. |
| 16 | CHI | David Montgomery | Shocking as it seems, Montgomery was the No. 4 fantasy back last year when Tarik Cohen was hurt and HC Matt Nagy had no other inferior back to steal the carries. The Bears have the No. 2 rushing schedule paired with the same bad O-line. He’s worth higher than this and Cohen is slow to return from a torn ACL. |
| 17 | SEA | Chris Carson | Carson has been a Top-20 fantasy back in each of the last three years. The schedule is a little better and Rashaad Penny spent the last three years as an injury waiting to happen. Always solid, never spectacular. |
| 18 | DET | D’Andre Swift | Here’s another rookie that struggled in the COVID-19-impacted season. Swift gets new coaches that want to turn him into a Alvin Kamara-like player. The O-line is better than most and so far it appears the Lions’ offense is mostly up to Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Jared Goff was given some sketchy wideouts, so Swift can be a valuable outlet. |
| 19 | PHI | Miles Sanders | While Sanders has the talent to produce far better than this, he is also on a team that is committed to a rotation even with new coaches. A rushing quarterback only serves to further diminish what the backfield can do. |
| 20 | LV | Josh Jacobs | This is a level equal to Jacobs’ rookie year. He was No. 8 in 2020 but the addition of Kenyan Drake scares away fantasy team owners. That’s probably overrated. This is should be the worst that he’ll do. |
| 21 | MIA | Myles Gaskin | The Dolphins did nothing in the draft for the backfield and only picked up free agent Malcolm Brown. Gaskin doesn’t have the pedigree or resume to earn him a starting job. But he has the one thing that trumps all else. He gets the opportunity. And he catches the ball well with 41 catches in 2020. Plus the Fins have the No. 3 rushing schedule. Maybe he disappears in 2022, but he’s poised for a decent year in 2021. |
| 22 | ATL | Mike Davis | Another back that had far fewer touches during his first five years on three teams. But one season in Carolina when Christian McCaffrey was hurt and he converted that into a surprising starting gig for the Falcons. It’s a new offense under HC Arthur Smith but Davis caught 59 passes for the Panthers last year and ran 165 times. The Falcons did not bring in anyone else to challenge him. |
| 23 | CLE | Kareem Hunt | This may end up as a steal. The Browns intend to run their offense through Nick Chubb and Hunt with the No. 1 offensive line in the NFL. This is the worst he’ll do. With Chubb banged up last year, Hunt finished as the No. 10 fantasy back. |
| 24 | JAX | James Robinson | Robinson was a huge surprise when he replaced Leonard Fournette. This season, there is a whole new offense, a new rookie quarterback, a below-average O-line and they added Travis Etienne in the first round. They say the rookie becomes the third-down back, but Etienne twice ran for 1,600 yards at Clemson. Good rushing schedule, though. Just feels risky like Etienne may increase his role while Robinson declines later in the season when you really need him. |
Sleepers and overvalued players
| ADP | Tm | Running Back | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | LAR | Darrell Henderson | The loss of Cam Akers devastated this backfield that had already parted with Malcolm Brown. Henderson rises to RB1 by default and the former third-rounder of 2019 turned in several nice games last year. But he’s had injury issues including a high-ankle sprain in 2020. The Rams will use a committee approach, so Henderson is not the new Akers. But he should, for now, be the primary back. |
| 26 | JAX | Travis Etienne | Jags do not need Etienne to step into a full-time running back role with James Robinson there, but the new coaching staff grabbed Etienne with a first-round pick. So far, the plan is for Etienne to be a third-down back which alone could justify this draft spot. But he’s too talented to not, at least eventually, become a primary back. Could start slower, though. |
| 27 | SF | Raheem Mostert | 2019 was his magical year and even then only as the No. 25 fantasy back. His other five years never played more than 9 games or ranked better than 47. No thanks. |
| 28 | ARI | Chase Edmonds | Risk is here with never more than 850 total yards in a season, but Kenyan Drake is gone and Edmonds stepped up last year as the No. 2 back with 53 receptions. The addition of James Conner could end up as a true two-back system, but ARI has a better O-line, easier schedule and a more mature offense. |
| 29 | DEN | Javonte Williams | Williams has climbed draft boards all summer long. Melvin Gordon is still there and maybe the No. 1 back at least to start. But he’s in his final contract year and the Broncos moved up to grab the NCU star that has all the physical attributes and skill set to become an elite NFL back. Denver owns the No. 1 rushing schedule strength so there may be enough for both backs to matter. |
| 30 | NE | Damien Harris | Maybe third time is the charm? Two lost seasons for the ex-Alabama rusher but he gained 5.0 YPC on his 137 runs last year including three 100-yard games. Pats backfield has been a mess for a decade, but Harris remains at the top until he is injured yet again. If Mac Jones starts, the offense becomes more traditional and the RB1 will likely account for more. |
| 31 | DEN | Melvin Gordon | Gordon was Top-12 every year he did not hold out. But he never stays healthy, only once ever broke 1,000 rush yards in six years and relied mostly on short-yardage touchdowns. Final year of contract and almost certainly gone in 2022. Expectations are that Javonte Williams becomes the primary back sooner than later, so Gordon’s fantasy value is likely to decline as the season progresses. |
| 32 | NYJ | Michael Carter | He’s smaller at only 5-8 and 190 pounds, but the Jets added him to a backfield that appears to be devoid of talent. Offense promises to be better under OC Mike LaFleur and Carter should be the lead back here. None of current Jets’ rushers gained more than 254 yards last year. Very low bar to start and Carter adds receiving |
| 33 | SF | Trey Sermon | Another rookie that rises in drafts each week. Bottom line – Sermon is likely the best inside rusher on the team but the offense always splits up carries. Has the most upside of any 49ers back. But no runner totaled more than 153 carries in a season since HC Kyle Shanahan showed up in 2017. |
| 34 | TB | Leonard Fournette | He was a testament as to why early fantasy drafts are risky. Fournette turned it on later last season, and the Buccaneers head into this year with two rushers. Fournette deserves to go first since he does more as a receiver but Ronald Jones still figures in and technically is the primary back. Buccaneers also fall to the No. 32 rushing schedule, so his receptions should help keep him on the field, unless Giovani Bernard assumes the role. |
| 36 | HOU | David Johnson | Texans backfield is crowded with mediocre has-beens and never-weres, and the O-line is still a liability. Worst rushing schedule. That all said, Johnson is most likely to lead the group whatever that means this year. What it mostly means is that you waited too long if Johnson is one of your starting running backs. |
| 37 | ARI | James Conner | The backfield in Arizona will be split between Conner and Chase Edmonds and last year the totals were only average for an NFL backfield. Edmonds has the advantage of knowing the offense and catching 53 passes last year. But Conner at 6-1, 233 pounds is likely to take the inside role over the 5-9, 205 pound Edmonds. Cardinals have a lighter rushing schedule this year. Coming off toe surgery but should be fine. |
| 38 | BUF | Zack Moss | Had ankle surgery in January but expected to be good to go for Week 1. This was one of the worst backfields in 2020 but Moss was busier at the end of that season. Singletary lost carries to Moss and evolved into a receiving back by the end of the year. Moss should continue to see more carries. Josh Allen running in scores undercuts what Moss could do. |
| 39 | GB | A.J. Dillon | Dillon is a must-have for the Aaron Jones owner and should supply stand-alone fantasy value with short-yardage and goal line work. The Packers rushing strength of schedule plummets from No. 2 down to only No. 31 for this season. But the O-line is one of the best. |
| 40 | LV | Kenyan Drake | He’s a great handcuff for the Josh Jacobs owner, and may pick up some work as a third-down option. He’s had his shot as a primary back and wasn’t quite up to the task. |
| 41 | BAL | Gus Edwards | Ravens just signed him to a two-year, $10 million contract as a part of the rotation. He’ll be No. 2 behind J.K. Dobbins and has no real chance of ever supplying RB1 stats. But – he’s always going to be good for some yardage and a catch or two per game. The Ravens like him and he’s a decent roster stash in case it all goes wrong and you need a consistent – even if minimally – running back. Solid O-line helps. |
| 42 | WAS | J.D. McKissic | New quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t likely toss another 110 targets at McKissic like last year. He’s a distant second to Antonio Gibson but will remain a third-down back to use to cover bye weeks. |
| 43 | BUF | Devin Singletary | Third-rounder from 2019 hasn’t quite caught fire in Buffalo and Zack Moss is taking more of the rushing load at the least. This deeply, he has enough value to merit a fantasy roster spot but his usage is trending the wrong way with the Bills |
| 44 | DAL | Tony Pollard | The Cowboys want to keep Zeke Elliott fresher for the playoffs, and Pollard looked great when he replaced the elite rusher that the defense cared about. He should see at least a tick more use this year and is a capable back if they need him to step up and replace Elliott if needed. Mostly – just the handcuff for the Elliott owner. |
| 45 | DET | Jamaal Williams | The Lions intend to use D’Andre Swift and Williams as a tandem backfield and even said “the hot hand” gets the bigger share. But the pair are complementary with Swift the fast, outside rusher and receiver and Williams more of an inside puncher. Lions have an all-new scheme, and set of coaches and skill players, but they also have an above-average O-line. Williams is a handcuff for Swift but could produce fantasy relevant stats even as a stand-alone back. |
| 46 | IND | Nyheim Hines | Nothing wrong with swinging for the fence this deep, but there’s a lot to be said about a third-down guy like Hines who catches 60 passes per season and offers about 10 points every week in PPR leagues. He won’t win your league, but he could help keep your team afloat if your backfield has injuries. |
| 47 | MIN | Alexander Mattison | Handcuff for Dalvin Cook who always misses a game or two. But short of Cook being out, Mattison offers nearly nothing while Cook handles everything. |
| 48 | NO | Latavius Murray | There is conjecture that the Saints will play Alvin Kamara as a receiver more and that Murray sees a spike in rushing from his normal 140 rushes per year. But Taysom Hill may take up carries and touchdowns, and Murray is 31 years old. Saints have a great O-line and Murray could still deliver equal to this level, but he’s getting old to expect much else. |
| 49 | HOU | Phillip Lindsay | The Texans’ log jam at running back should clear out a bit by the start of the season, but maybe not by your fantasy draft. Lindsay is just a lottery ticket that likely doesn’t pay off with what appears to be a very bad offense for 2021. |
| 50 | NYJ | Tevin Coleman | Maybe Coleman reunites with with his 49ers coaches, and he’s certainly the only veteran that’s done anything in their NFL career in their backfield. But the 28-year-old Coleman hasn’t amounted to much since 2018 with the Falcons. He’s often injured now and the Jets only paid him $2M for one year. |
| 51 | CHI | Tarik Cohen | Tore his ACL last year and still not healthy. Nope. Do not draft players that are already injured. |
| 52 | SEA | Rashaad Penny | Speaking of injured players, Penny spent all three years getting injured or recovering. Now word is that DeeJay Dallas may take some third-down duty. Going on four years, not drafting Penny has been the wise move. |
| 53 | TB | Ronald Jones | He is listed on the top of the depth chart and may end up with more carries than Leonard Fournette, but his final eight games totaled only three catches. And worse yet, Bucs have the worst rushing schedule. |
| 54 | NE | James White | No Brady, no bueno. Cam Newton preferred to run rather than dump off to White. If Mac Jones gets the start, White may matter again. |
| 55 | CAR | Chuba Hubbard | You can be really sure that if I own the best fantasy running back, I am going to own his backup. And yes, I was torched last year when I did not do this with Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers want to take it easier on McCaffrey and that could help Hubbard, but they always say that sort of thing. Hubbard is worth stealing. |
| 56 | LAR | Xavier Jones | That backfield for the Rams became interesting and yet muddy when Cam Akers was lost. Darrell Henderson defaults as the primary back but Jones should see some action. Jake Funk may also be involved. Until it is all sorted out and made permanent, Jones is a worthy final running back draft pick that could surprise. |
| 57 | IND | Marlon Mack | Mack tore his Achilles last year and Jonathan Taylor took full advantage, even as a rookie. He’s nothing more than a waiver wire pick if bad things happen to Taylor. |
| 59 | NYG | Devontae Booker | Booker is just a backup for Saquon Barkley, but Alfred Morris may also get involved. Barkley seems likely to take it easy to open the year, but Booker is not even a great handcuff, let alone have reliable weekly fantasy value. |
| 60 | HOU | Mark Ingram | The 31-year-old Ingram seems to have hit the 30-year-old wall in Baltimore last year and all but disappeared. Landing on a terrible offense with a bad O-line when he’s over the hill doesn’t promote any positive vibes. |
Best of the rest
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – The Patriots have long used a committee approach to their backfield, and the rookie Stevenson may only be the No. 4 back. But there’s speculation that Sony Michel may be dropped, James White remains an under-used third-down back and primary rusher Damien Harris has been less than durable in his two years. The burly ex-Sooner has impressed and could see more work than expected. An early comparison to Corey Dillon is probably just bluster, but there is some upside here.