Week 15 means many are in their fantasy playoffs, big-dollar contests are deciding league winners and kicking off the total-points stretch for the next three weeks. We saw a lot of injuries in the last two weeks, particularly to quarterbacks. Unfortunately, most fantasy teams are just watching by now but there’s always things to learn that can help next season.
Here’s a popular look at meaningful statistics that aren’t usually considered.
1.) Wide Receiver yards per catch – How many yards do each catch average? Here are the Top-20 deep-ball receivers for 2022 with a minimum of 30 catches.
For the last two seasons, there were only seven wideouts with more than 15.0 yards per catch – there are 15 this year. The top receivers in yards per catch represent most of the top players in the position. The increased use of slot receivers tends to bring down their average yardage, but the long ball is alive and well. The bigger surprises are Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, and DeAndre Hopkins who don’t immediately come to mind thinking of players catching deep passes.
2.) Quarterback passes per touchdown – This metric is the ultimate in measuring quarterback effectiveness. What is more telling than how many passes have to be thrown to get a touchdown? Minimum of ten touchdowns.
How impressive is Brock Purdy? Russell Wilson is another surprise since he struggled when landing in Denver. Tua Tagovailoa has been Top-5 the last two years, thanks surely to Tyreek Hill. It is telling for the problems with the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes rates No. 9, but last year he was No. 1 with 15.5. More passing, fewer scores.
3.) Running Back plays per game – Today’s NFL uses running backs as both rushers and receivers, but it is a little more accurate to count up their carries and targets, since that represents how often teams consider the running back for a play. Snaps are a fairly new metric, though only describes how often a players was on the field rather than actually doing anything fantasy-relevant. Minimum 100 plays.
One of the realities is that this list changes dramatically each year, though there are usually six or seven with 20+ plays per game. Barkley, McCaffrey, and Jacobs are the only backs that repeated a 20-play level from 2022. The biggest falls from 2022 to this year were Dameon Pierce, Jonathan Taylor, and Dalvin Cook – all previous Top-10 backs in the metric.
4.) Tight Ends yards per catch – Maybe you don’t get any fantasy points for “Catch distance”, but it’s a good measure of how much a tight end is really a designed receiver than a blocker. Minimum 25 catches.
The position declines a bit each year as offenses evolve into deeper passing and wider formations. The deeper the catch, the more in indicates that the tight end is being used more as a receiver than just a blocker who occasionally catches a pass. It is encouraging that Kyle Pitts is No. 2 and he was No. 5 last year with a nearly identical average catch. But this too changes – the Top-3 last year were Hunter Henry, Jordan Akins, and Greg Dulcich.
5.) Place Kicker field goal success rate – The reality for kickers is that they are an expression of how often an offense is good enough to get within the opponent’s 40-yard line and yet bad enough that they didn’t score a touchdown. But when that happens, you want a guy that is going to toss three points on the scoreboard.
Good to see newcomer Brandon Aubrey nailing every single attempt, alone with Harrison Butker who had a down year in 2022. He’s better this year, but kicking far fewer field goals.
6.) Defensive “big plays” – There is a wide variation in what fantasy points are awarded for defenses from league to league, but everyone rewards sacks, fumble recoveries, interceptions, and safeties. They reward touchdowns as well, but those come on a fumble or interception. This looks at how many plays NFL defenses have in those categories.
It is always surprising to see how defenses shift from year to year. They are reactive units and, as such, are left to deal with whatever their offense did or did not do. Opponents have to throw the ball in order to get sacks and interceptions. But the upper tier of defenses not only have that advantageous situation, but have the players to make the difference. The top defenses are very well represented among the playoff-bound teams.
About Last Night…
That was not a resume builder for any of the Chargers, much less HC Brandon Staley, who is still the head coach as of this writing. Maybe not tomorrow. It was one touchdown away from repeating the Miami win over the Broncos. 63-21 is just not a score that happens much in a professional game. By halftime, it was getting hard to watch unless you had fantasy players not named Austin Ekeler in it.
These were the same Raiders that lost last week 3-0. That had only totaled 46 points in the previous four games before posting 42 by halftime.
The Chargers have clearly given up. HC Brandon Staley has lost the team and while they played without Keenan Allen, they weren’t remotely competitive. By halftime, Easton Stick only totaled 75 passing yards. He ended with 257 yards and three scores but never changed the scoreboard until they were down 49-0. Joshua Palmer (4-113, TD) and Gerald Everett (5-41) led the receivers, but 79 yards came on a touchdown catch by Palmer. Austin Ekeler only gained nine yards on five carries and caught four passes for 29 yards, but Isaiah Spiller gained 50 yards on 16 runs and handled most of the work after the first quarter.
Aiden O’Connell passed for 248 yards and four touchdowns. That was as many touchdowns as he had over his first six games combined – and never more than one in a week. It was more of an indictment of the Chargers’ lack of a secondary than any positive advancement of the Raiders offense that was shut out last week. Davante Adams (8-101, TD), Tre Tucker (3-59, 2 TD), Mike Mayer (4-39, TD), and Jakobe Meyers (2-32, TD) all scored, plus Meyers threw the touchdown to Adams. Zamir White ran for 69 yards and a score on 17 carries, while Brandon Bolden (2-25, TD) had his first touches of the year.
It was an embarrassing beatdown from a team that could never score last week.