For many, the Buffalo Bills are being mentioned as the team to knock the New England Patriots from atop the AFC East standings for the first time in over a decade. Buffalo’s core of talented young players place the team on a path of upward swing. With two playoff berths in three seasons on the heels of a 17-year postseason drought, it seems the Bills have turned the corner and is moving into the conversation for a deeper playoff run.
However, Sports Illustrated doesn’t see things panning out that way for Buffalo. In fact, a regression is predicted.
Whether it’s a hot take or a genuine lack of belief in the team, SI has the Bills falling to 7-9 this in 2020, settling in behind the Patriots and… the Dolphins (!!!) in the standings. The Pats lead the way in the prediction, while the lowly Dolphins of the past few seasons jolt to a .500 record.
Here’s the analysis of the Bills’ divisional foes:
I’m not sure what to make of my bullishness on Miami, honestly. The offensive line worries me, and the team doesn’t have an A-plus blocking tight end to make up for any of the deficiencies. This is most certainly a work in progress. However, the Dolphins are solid through the middle of the defense and will be able to handle well what most of the offenses in the division do best. And their cornerback play on paper (the kind of paper that doesn’t include advanced coverage stats from 2019) should be superb. With the emergence of Brian Flores, I think the AFC East is the healthiest it’s been as a division in years. That doesn’t mean New England will falter. It does mean that some strange things will happen, though. For example: I have the Jets splitting season series with the Bills and Patriots. I think we’ll see more splits than we have in years past with the pole position leader making up the difference on the out-of-conference schedule.
SI’s Conor Orr knows his prediction won’t be one that the Bills Mafia will enjoy. He points to the schedule as the main reason why he sees Buffalo falling below .500 this year:
I imagine Buffalo burning as I type this. I imagine my seat near the bar at Bar-Bill Tavern being roped off and I imagine Big Ditch Brewing Co. refusing to serve me any more (what a nightmare). What I don’t like for Buffalo is how their schedule dovetails into some pretty gnarly stretches, like Weeks 3-6 (Rams, at Raiders, at Titans, at Chiefs) then Weeks 8-14 (Patriots, Seahawks, at Cardinals, Chargers, at 49ers, Steelers). Those could be the kind of uphill climbs that blow up a season quickly.
While Orr did a nice job name-dropping companies in the Greater Buffalo area, there’s some areas to poke at within his analysis. Both Los Angeles teams come east this year, which benefits the east coast team. Oh, and the Bills defense is pretty good. Nevertheless, we’ll stick to the schedule. Anything short of a sweep against the Jets is a travesty. The Jets are closer to picking No.1 than they are to making the playoffs, and the Bills should help them get closer to passing on Trevor Lawrence with the first-overall pick next year.
The addition of Stefon Diggs bolsters the offense, making it challenging for defenses to matchup against the team’s passing attack. Yes, Josh Allen is still developing, but if he can take a step forward, there’s little reason to challenge that Buffalo could be seeing double-digit victories in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the Wade Phillips era. Allen also has offensive coordinator Brian Daboll in his corner. The coach has been effective in finding what works best for Allen and the two have chemistry built up together over the past few years. Sometimes teams just rifle through coordinators, look at Diggs and the Vikings. He had a new one every year there.
We won’t discredit that teams can fall off a cliff, whether it’s due to injury or regression. However, with Sean McDermott at the helm and Buffalo’s roster (at least on paper), compared to the rest of the division, it’s difficult to envision this team sliding back three games from last year.
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