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The Seattle Mariners (49-43) and San Diego Padres (49-45) collide in the front half of a 2-game set Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Mariners won 3-1 last year
Seattle is on the road after a 3-6 home stand. With significant struggles on offense, the Mariners have gone just 5-12 since June 19. Over that stretch, Seattle has averaged just 3.18 runs per game on a whiff-heavy .600 OPS.
The Padres have been trending the other way since that same date in June. Over its last 17 games, San Diego is 12-5 on 5.82 RPG.
Mariners at Padres projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Adam Mazur
Gilbert (5-5, 2.91 ERA) is making his 19th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 117 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home defeat vs. Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
- Last start marked his shortest since May 9
- Owns 3.18 ERA when pitching on 5 days of rest
- Career vs. Padres: 3-1, 1.11 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 4 starts
Mazur (1-2, 7.52 ERA) is lined up for his 7th start. He owns a 1.82 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 in 26 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 6-4 win at Texas Rangers Wednesday
- Has allowed 8 runs on 13 hits in his last 9 IP
- Never faced Mariners before
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mariners at Padres odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:27 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mariners -142 (bet $142 to win $100) | Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+116) | Padres +1.5 (-142)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Mariners 3
Moneyline
The Padres are the more sound team of late. The Mariners are clearly worthy of being favorites based on the pitching match-up, but the price here reflects too much lean toward the visiting nine.
Gilbert has been aided by a .234 batting average on balls in play, and that’s helped keep his ERA a tad lower than perhaps it should be. The opposite holds the San Diego bullpen. Shaky numbers in the last 5 weeks or so have been ballooned by a high BABIP.
Over their last 5 series openers, the Friars have gone 4-1. BET SAN DIEGO (+120).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: A San Diego lean is not priced with enough value.
Over/Under
San Diego home games have seen the Over cash in 11 straight. Overall, the Over is 13-3 across the Padres’ last 16 games.
With some fade to Seattle’s pitching and San Diego swinging hot bats, BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-122). Consider a partial-unit play unless the tag becomes more appealing.
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