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The Seattle Mariners (27-23) and New York Yankees (34-17) battle in a Thursday matinee at Yankee Stadium. First pitch in the finale of a 4-game series is slated for a 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 2-1
Seattle took the 1st 2 games of this series Monday and Tuesday. On Tuesday, they hit 4 HRs in a 6-3 triumph.
The Yankees answered that quartet of round-trippers with 4 of their own in a 7-3 bounce-back win on Wednesday. OF Juan Soto hit 2 of those homers; he’s 8-for-19 (.421) with 4 HR over his last 5 games.
Mariners at Yankees projected starters
RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Luis Gil
Castillo (4-5, 3.28 ERA) is making his 11th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 60 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 4-3 win at Baltimore Orioles Saturday
- Career vs. Yankees: 1-2, 2.84 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 21 H, 15 BB, 28 K in 5 starts
Gil (5-1, 2.39 ERA) is making his 10th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 49 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 14 K in 6-1 win vs. Chicago White Sox Saturday
- Career vs. Mariners: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (5 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 1 start
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Mariners at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Yankees -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-165) | Yankees -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mariners at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
Seattle is 6-3 across its last 9 getaway games.
Castillo has held current New York batters to an aggregate .541 OPS in past meetings, per ESPN. Gil has been terrific, but he has mostly pitched through the lessened traffic of a .217 batting average on balls in play. There has been some good fortune to his numbers so far.
The New York bullpen figures to have more warts than what shows in its surface line, and they have shown during this series. And strength of schedule is often overlooked in baseball betting, as many bettors assume the everyday slate levels everything in a matter of weeks. That is not always the case, and sometimes it figures into a component lean. For example, the Yankees’ pitching-faced slate to date has been a weak one.
FanDuel Sportsbook has a better price here. Consider a partial-unit play on SEATTLE (+122). Go in heavier at +125 or better.
Run line/Against the spread
FanDuel offers a RL Seattle play (+1.5) at -156. That’s enticing as both clubs have played more 1-run games than average. A slight lean but no more.
Over/Under
The total has gone Over in 5 of Seattle’s last 6 games. The total has gone Over in 8 of the Mariners’ last 9 games on the road and has hit in 6 of Seattle’s last 8 games at Yankee Stadium.
On a humid day with a slight outward breeze in the forecast (and 2 fly-ball pitchers on the mound), BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-105).
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