With less than one week to go before the 2022 NFL draft, ESPN has released an analysis that ranks the Seahawks No. 1 in career approximate value over expected (CAVOE) on their draft picks since 2012. That’s the good news. The bad news is the vast majority of that surplus value came from one guy who’s no longer on the roster.
Based on ESPN’s CAVOE model it appears that Seattle taking Russell Wilson at No. 75 overall was about the highest-value pick any team has made over the last 10 years. That and the extra value Bobby Wagner offered in the second round pushed that awesome 2012 class essentially into a realm of its own.
Sadly, the truth is that this team hasn’t turned in an A+ draft class since that year. It’s probably no accident that former personnel guru Scot McCloughan exited the following year (2013). He had previously built up the brutally-tough Jim Harbaugh era 49ers teams and after he left Seattle he almost made the Washington franchise a contender in just two years. Meanwhile, the pairing of Pete Carroll and John Schneider have managed to draft just one superstar and three long-term starters the last six years: D.K. Metcalf, Frank Clark, Tyler Lockett and Jordyn Brooks (probably).
Remember, Clark fell into the second round because of legitimate off-field concerns. Meanwhile, Metcalf dropped to No. 64 overall because 31 other teams made a colossally stupid mistake. PC/JS also had to give up a lot of capital to trade up for Lockett. Add it all up and the results have been pretty awful since the 2013 class.
Most of this team’s good acquisitions over the last several years have come via trades and the odd undrafted studs like Poona Ford. There haven’t been nearly enough of those late-round hits and UDFA gems to keep the team competing at a championship level indefinitely.
What ultimately held the ship together in the face of Carroll’s antiquated philosophies and a declining roster was the transcendent talent of Russell Wilson, who’s out of the picture.
The last time Seattle needed a new franchise QB they got extremely lucky, only having to spend one year in the wilderness in 2011 with Tarvaris Jackson as their starter.
From Matt Hasselbeck taking over in 2001 up until Wilson’s final season Seahawks fans have enjoyed nearly 20 years of uninterrupted good-to-great quarterback play. Only two other teams have enjoyed similar success during the same time-frame. Aaron Rodgers just re-upped for four more years, while the Patriots seem to believe Mac Jones is their long-term answer after Tom Brady’s exit.
In the end, Pete Carroll and John Schneider probably didn’t believe Wilson will continue to ball out at a high level into his late 30s and 40s the way Rodgers and Brady have. They certainly weren’t willing to pay him the kind of money those elite QBs will be commanding on this next round of contracts.
Or maybe Wilson wasn’t going to sign another contract with the Seahawks no matter what they were or weren’t willing to offer. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine Wilson mentally checking out after the way the 2018 playoff game against the Cowboys went down.
Anyway. If Carroll and Schneider actually pull this off and find a new high-level QB in the next couple years they’ll have their jobs as long as they want them.
If not?
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