The San Francisco Giants (38-23) visit the nation’s capital Thursday to start a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (25-33) at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco just split a two-game mini interleague series at the Texas Rangers after losing 4-3 in extra innings Wednesday, but the Giants have won seven of their last 10 games.
Washington wrapped up a nine-game road swing by also splitting a two-game mini interleague series with the Tampa Bay Rays thanks to a 9-7 extra-innings win Wednesday. The Nationals were 4-5 on their road trip.
Season series: 0-0.
RHP Anthony DeSclafani makes his 13th start for the Giants. DeSclafani is 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 7-2, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K vs. the Chicago Cubs last Thursday.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 124 at-bats with a .266/.321/.435 slash line, 30/8 K/BB, 5 HR and 13 RBIs.
RHP Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nationals. Scherzer is 5-4 with a 2.22 ERA (77 IP, 19 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 across 12 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 2-1, in 7 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K Friday at the Philadelphia Phillies.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 100 at-bats with a .170/.215/.390 slash line, 36/6 K/BB, 4 HR and 11 RBIs.
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Giants at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Nationals -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-140) | Nationals -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Nationals 7, Giants 2
Money line (ML)
PASS because we are a little late to the party and the price on the Nationals (-190) is too rich for my blood. The game opened at Washington (-164) on most books but has been steamed up to the current number.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the NATIONALS -0.5 (-145) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit since Washington has an overwhelming edge in starting pitching matchup and Nationals hitters three through six have an .871 OPS or better vs. DeSclafani.
Also, I’d argue DeSclafani’s basic pitching numbers are a little flukey as indicated by his .251 BAbip while he is grading in the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate and 33rd percentile in exit velocity.
Furthermore, DeSclafani’s 9% meatball rate is the highest of his career. To put that in perspective the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff leads the majors in meatball rate at 7.9%.
The reason why I’m focusing on Washington’s First 5 Innings line is that the Nationals -1.5 (+115) isn’t fat enough and Washington’s bullpen has a worse xFIP and SIERA despite San Francisco’s bullpen ranking 28th in WAR.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” on the Over 7.5 (+100) since both bullpens are taxed from playing extra-inning games Wednesday and if either starter can’t eat up a lot of innings then these lineups could both do damage in the late game.
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