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The San Diego Padres (47-36) host the San Francisco Giants (41-39) Thursday for the start of their 4-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco, who are 3-7 in the last 10 games, snapped a 6-game losing skid Wednesday with a 7-5 win at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
San Diego is 2-8 in the last 10 and were just swept in an 2-game interleague, home series vs. the Seattle Mariners.
Season series: Padres lead 4-2, outscoring the Giants 27-26
Giants at Padres projected starters
RHP Logan Webb vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Webb is 7-3 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 97 2/3 IP over 16 starts.
- Last start: Loss 5-3 Saturday at home vs. the Chicago White Sox with 6 IP, 5 R (3 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K
- 2022 vs. the Padres: One start – a 2-1 home win April 13 – with 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 7 K
Musgrove is 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 92 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: Loss 3-1 June 30 at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 10 K
- 2022 vs. the Giants: One start – a 2-1 win May 21 – with 7-scoreless IP, 4 H, 3 BB and 4 K
Giants at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:38 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Giants +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Giants at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Giants 1
Money line
BET PADRES (-150).
I’m higher on Musgrove than Webb and San Diego’s bullpen ranks better than San Francisco’s in K/BB rate (3.26-2.53) and xFIP (4.11-3.66), according to FanGraphs.
Also, Musgrove grades better than Webb in several advanced pitching stats such as exit velocity, hard-hit rate, whiff rate, chase rate and expected ERA, per Statcast.
Finally, the Padres have taken sharp action, which has steamed them up from a -130 ML opener to the current number.
Let’s follow the money and BET PADRES (-150).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Three of the six Giants-Padres meetings this season have been 1-run games, San Diego is 10-22 RL as a home favorite and San Francisco is 9-5 RL as a road underdog.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+105) because most of the money is on the Over 6.5 (-130), according to Pregame.com, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener.
This “line freeze” in the betting market suggests oddsmakers are daring bettors to take more pro-Over action.
Also, Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly venue in MLB and ranks last in park factor.
However, it’s only a “lean” since this is a sharp total and San Diego’s ML is my favorite look in this game.
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