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The San Diego Padres (54-50) and Washington Nationals (47-55) meet Thursday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 12:05 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: San Diego leads 5-0
San Diego embarrassed Washington 12-3 Wednesday while covering as a -103 road favorite. The Padres scored 12 unanswered runs from the 2nd to 5th innings after going down 3-0 in the 1st. C Kyle Higashioka went 3-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI.
LHP Mitchell Parker was the losing pitcher (3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K) as the Nationals have lost both games of this series.
Padres at Nationals projected starters
RHP Dylan Cease vs. LHP Patrick Corbin
Cease (9-8, 3.76 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 122 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 10 K in a 7-0 win over Cleveland Guardians Saturday
- Career vs. Washington: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (7 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 1 start
Corbin (2-9, 5.35 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 111 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 8-5 win over Cincinnati Reds Friday
- Career vs. San Diego: 7-11, 4.75 ERA (127 IP, 67 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 25 appearances (20 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:24 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Nationals +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (-110) | Nationals +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Padres at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Nationals 5
Moneyline
PASS.
The Padres should cover here as -185 road favorites, but a line set this favorably is never worth the risk of betting on. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
LEAN NATIONALS +1.5 (-110).
Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Nationals are 56-46 ATS on the year and 33-21 ATS when coming off a loss this season. The Padres are 53-51 ATS and 32-17 ATS as the road squad this year.
Over/Under
BET OVER 9 (-105).
The Over has hit in 3 of Washington’s last 5 home games and is 5-2 in its last 7 overall. The Over has also hit in 7 of the last 10 San Diego-Washington meetings, being 5-1 in the last 6 overall and 2-1 in the last 3 meetings in the Nation’s Capital.
Be aware that the Over is only 3-7 San Diego’s last 10 outings.
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