The Washington Nationals (42-48) host the San Diego Padres (54-40) for the second game of their three-game series at Nationals Park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego’s lineup raked Washington in a 24-8 beatdown in the series opener Friday.
The Padres hit five home runs with RF Wil Myers contributing 2 HR, including a grand slam, with 7 RBIs and 2B Jake Cronenworth hitting for the cycle with 4 RBIs.
Season series: Padres lead 3-2.
LHP Blake Snell is San Diego’s projected starter. Snell is 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA (70 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 over 16 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 11-1, with 4 IP, 0 ER, 2H, 4 BB and 3 K at the Philadelphia Phillies July 4.
- 2021 road splits: 0-3 with a 9.09 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 2.14 WHIP and 1.4 K/BB in nine starts.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 35 at-bats with a .257/.333/.514 slash line, 14/4 K/BB, 2 HR and 3 RBIs.
LHP Patrick Corbin makes his 18th start for the Nationals. Corbin is 6-7 with a 5.40 ERA (93 1/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 15-5, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K at the Padres July 7.
- 2021 home splits: 5-3 with a 4.88 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.34 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB in eight starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 85 at-bats with a .282/.380/.459 slash line, 18/13 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.
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Padres at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:16 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Nationals +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+120) | Nationals +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Padres 8, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
TAKE the PADRES (-135) for 1 unit because “sharp” money has steamed San Diego up from a -122 money line favorite on the opening number to the current price, which is still below my buy-price of “Padres (-140)”.
Snell has been terrible on the road this season but there isn’t much rhyme or reason behind that and progression is almost guaranteed because he can’t pitch much worse on the road than he did in the first half of the year.
Speaking of which, Snell has turned it on after the All-Star Break throughout his career with a 74.1% win rate (20-7 record), 2.70 ERA (213 1/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.17 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB in the second half of the season.
Moreover, since neither starter’s numbers elicit much confidence, I’d much rather put my money on the Padres since their bullpen is a lot more reliable.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Padres -1.5 (+120) isn’t a fat enough payout considering how bad Snell has pitched on the road this season and San Diego’s 7-9 record in Snell starts.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-105) for a quarter unit because of the aforementioned Snell difficulties in road starts, Corbin being in the midst of his worst season in the big leagues and the weather forecast predicting double-digit winds at the hitters’ backs.
However, the Over bet seems rather obvious since these teams scored a combined 32 runs in the opener of the series and I much prefer the Padres to win outright hence the slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-105).
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