The San Diego Padres (4-3) start a three-game interleague set with the Texas Rangers (3-3) at Globe Life Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Joe Musgrove (1-0) is San Diego’s projected starter Friday.
Musgrove pitched six scoreless innings, giving up three hits, striking out eight with no walks and got the win in San Diego’s 7-0 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday.
Last season while at the Pittsburgh Pirates, Musgrove was 1-5 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 8 starts.
RHP Kohei Arihara (0-0) makes his second career start for the Rangers Friday.
The 28-year-old Arihara was in line to win his MLB debut but ended up with a no-decision after pitching five innings and giving up three earned runs in Texas’ 11-4 loss to the Kansas City Royals.
Even though Arihara gave a lead to the Texas bullpen, he only had one strikeout with a 50% hard-hit rate, 5.80 SIERA and 6.24 xFIP against Kansas City.
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Padres at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Rangers +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-120) | Rangers +1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Padres 11, Rangers 1
Money line (ML)
The Padres (-190) might tee off on the Rangers (+155), but that’s evident in the pricing, which is a little too expensive for my taste.
However, San Diego’s implied probability based on the money line is 65.5%, and that equates to roughly 100 wins in a 162-game season. If this Padres team played this Rangers team 162 times, they’d comfortably win 100 games.
PASS with a “LEAN” to Padres (-190) because I’d entertain putting them in a parlay with Cleveland’s money line for a plus-money payout.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET PADRES -1.5 (-120) for 1.25 units. San Diego’s lineup is top-5 vs. righties in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS since the beginning of last season.
Finally, Musgrove is a pitcher I’m going to be looking to bet on a lot this season because San Diego rescued him from a bad Pittsburgh team that wasted his good stuff.
According to Statcast, he was in the 93rd percentile for exit velocity, 90th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in whiff%.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-120) for a quarter-unit if at all. Globe Life Field has been a notoriously hitter-friendly park, and the Rangers were 2-0-1 to the Under in their first three home games of the season.
My hesitation with the Over is because I’m buying Musgrove’s stock this season, and the Padres have the lowest bullpen ERA and second-lowest WHIP in the Majors.
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