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The San Diego Padres (76-58) and St. Louis Cardinals (65-67) play the 3rd game of a 4-game set at Busch Stadium Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 3-2
After taking the Monday opener 7-4 as +113 underdogs, the Padres won 7-5 as -139 favorites Tuesday as the Over hit in both games. 1B Jake Cronenworth hit a go-ahead RBI single in the 7th inning for San Diego, which has won 3 straight. The Padres are 3 games back of the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West and are in the 2nd NL Wild Card spot, 3 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves.
The Cardinals led 5-4 heading into the 7th and had a 75.5% win probability, according to ESPN Analytics, after the 1st out of the inning. The 3rd-place Cardinals trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 10½ games for the lead in the NL Central and are 7 games out of the final NL Wild Card.
Padres at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Andre Pallante
Musgrove (4-4, 4.43 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 65 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 7-0 home victory vs. New York Mets Friday
- 2024 road stats: 1-1, 5.63 ERA (16 IP, 10 ER), 1.88 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 4 starts
- 2024 vs. Cardinals: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 3-2 victory on April 3
- Career vs. Cardinals: 3-7, 4.87 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 12 starts
Pallante (6-6, 3.84 ERA) makes his 15th start and 24th appearance. The 25-year-old has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 86 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-1 victory at Minnesota Twins Friday
- 2024 home stats: 4-4, 4.85 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 11 appearances (7 starts)
- 2024 vs. Padres: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 3-2 loss April 3
- Career vs. Padres: 2-0, 2.35 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5 relief appearances
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:34 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Padres at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Cardinals 3
Moneyline
The Padres have won the last 3 meetings between these teams and are 3-1 in Musgrove’s last 4 starts.
The Cardinals have struggled since C Willson Contreras (broken finger) was hit by a pitch in the 4th inning of a 6-0 loss Saturday at the Twins. Including Saturday’s setback, St. Louis has gone 1-3 since losing its leader in OBP (.380) and now has just a 0.9% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com.
BET PADRES (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
The Cardinals +1.5 (-165) will likely cover the run line, but it’s harder to stay profitable long term in MLB betting into lines with this much vig.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The last 2 meetings have been high-scoring, but both starting pitchers have been impressive in recent outings. Musgove has a 0.57 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 1 ER) in 3 August starts, and Pallante has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 3 straight.
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
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