The San Diego Padres (24-14) meet the San Francisco Giants (22-15) Friday at Oracle Park to open a 3-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego won the rubber match of a 3-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday 2-0 behind an SP Yu Darvish gem and is 6-4 overall in its last 10 games.
San Francisco is 7-3 overall in its last 10 games but 5 of those wins were against the Colorado Rockies with the other 2 victories coming against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Season series: San Francisco leads 2-1 and has outscored San Diego 17-7 in those meetings.
Padres at Giants projected starters
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Jakob Junis
Manaea is 2-3 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 43 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in 6-5 loss at the Atlanta Braves with 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 12 K.
- 2022 vs. the Giants: Loss, 2-1, in San Francisco April 13 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 2.88 FIP with a .253/.310/.390 expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, 20.4 K% and 89.1 mph exit velocity in 93 plate appearances.
Junis is 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 20 2/3 IP over 2 starts and 2 relief appearances.
- Last start: Loss, 4-0, at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.
Padres at Giants odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Giants -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-205) | Giants -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Giants picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Giants 2
Money line
LEAN to the PADRES (+105) because Manaea’s pitching peripherals suggest his record will improve and San Diego is 5-3 overall as a road underdog.
Only 1 of Manaea’s 4 pitches has a plus-run value and most of his swing-and-miss rates have increased year over year, according to Statcast. Manaea’s road ERA (2.70) and WHIP (0.86) are much better than his home marks (5.51 ERA, 1.53 WHIP).
There’s also a line freeze in the betting market since more than 70% of the cash is on the Giants, per Pregame.com, but the line hasn’t budged off the opener.
It’s only a LEAN PADRES (+105) because it hasn’t been profitable fading the Giants at home since the beginning of last season and San Francisco’s lineup has been much hotter at the plate over the past two weeks.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Padres +1.5 (-205) are too expensive even though San Diego is 7-1 RL as a home underdog and San Francisco is 6-11 RL as a home favorite. Those RL records are appropriately accounted for in the pricing and the Padres +1.5 (-205) isn’t a big enough lock vs. the price.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) only because the Over has cashed in 13 of the last 18 Padres-Giants meetings and the weather forecast is predicting double-digit mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.
However, San Diego’s lineup is awful vs. right-handed pitching, ranking 22nd in wRC+ (88), 26th in wOBA (.285) and 18th in hard-hit rate (28.8%), according to FanGraphs.
Lastly, there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market since more money is on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over. Since professional bettors put up more dough than the average Joe, the money column is considered the sharper side of the market.
For what it’s worth, the UNDER 7.5 (-110) is my favorite wager in the Padres-Giants game.
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