The San Diego Padres (23-14) wrap up their 3-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (18-19) Thursday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego won the series opener 3-0 Tuesday thanks to a 10 K, 0 BB and 5 H performance by the pitching staff, which included a quality start out of Padres RHP Mike Clevinger.
Philadelphia evened the series Wednesday with a 3-0 victory on the strength of a 7-scoreless IP performance from Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler with 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
Padres at Phillies projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Kyle Gibson
Darvish is 3-1 with a 4.62 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 39 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in San Diego’s 11-6 win at the Atlanta Braves Friday with 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Phillies: Loss, 4-2, in Philly July 3 with 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.77 FIP with a .246/.319/.447 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 24.4 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 86 plate appearances (PA).
Gibson is 3-1 with a 4.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 over 37 1/3 IP across 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 12-10 win at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 1 K.
- 2021 vs. the Padres: Win, 7-4, at home Aug. 22 with 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 4.14 FIP with a .289/.352/.414 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 14.9 K% and 91.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 168 PA.
Padres at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+165) | Phillies +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Padres 2
Money line
BET the PHILLIES (-120) because I give them a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup and the Padres have struggled significantly at the plate recently.
Both Gibson and Darvish have pitched much better at home compared to on the road. In fact, Gibson is 3-0 at home with a 1.93 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 8.5 K/BB rate while Darvish is 1-1 on the road with a 7.91 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 1.8 K/BB rate.
The Padres batters are 26th in both wRC+ (85) and wOBA (.282) and 25th in hard-hit rate (35.8%) over the past two weeks, according to FanGraphs. San Diego’s lineup also ranks in the bottom-10 in wRC+ (91), wOBA (.290), hard-hit rate (28.4%) and groundball rate (44.9%) vs. right-handed pitching.
BET 1 unit on the PHILLIES (-120).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because Darvish has shown flashes of his former dominant self at times this season and the Padres are 14-6 RL on the road.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) because of the San Diego lineup’s aforementioned struggles and these teams have a combined 5-9 O/U record when these starters take the mound. It’s only a lean because Philly’s ML is my favorite wager in this game and this total could steam up to 8 or higher.
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