The San Diego Padres (23-13) meet the Philadelphia Phillies (17-19) for the second game of their 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park with the first pitch scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego won the series opener 3-0 Tuesday thanks to a 10 K, 0 BB and 5 H performance by the pitching staff, which included a quality start out of Padres RHP Mike Clevinger.
Philly has lost back-to-back games but is 6-4 overall in its last 10 games. San Diego has won 3 of its last 4 games and is also 6-4 overall in its last 10.
Padres at Phillies projected starters
LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Snell is making his 2022 debut for the Padres after dealing with a groin injury that kept him sidelined thus far.
- 2021 vs. the Phillies: 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 1 HR, 6 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.79 FIP with a .156/.293/.300 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 31.1 K% and 86.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 45 plate appearances (PA).
Wheeler is 1-3 with a 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 31 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- 2021 vs. the Padres: No-decision in Philly’s 4-3 loss to San Diego July 2 with 7 2/3-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 1.97 FIP with a .224/.247/.315 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 32.8 K% and 84.9 mph EV in 64 PA.
Padres at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:44 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Padres 3
Money line
The PHILLIES (-155) are the right side because they hit left-handed pitching better than the Padres hits right-handed pitching, Wheeler’s basic pitching numbers will improve and he pitches better at home.
Philly’s lineup ranks 5th in wRC+ (117) and 3rd in wOBA (.338) vs. lefties According to FanGraphs. Whereas San Diego’s lineup are 21st in wRC+ (91) and 24th in wOBA (.290) vs. right-handed pitching.
Wheeler grades in the 90th percentile for barrel rate and 85th percentile in chase rate (according to Statcast) and his form will improve as the summer continues. Wheeler has a 1.93 home ERA this season (10.80 ERA on the road) and a 0.94 WHIP (2.16 WHIP on the road).
However, I’d only RISK 1 unit on the PHILLIES (-155) at this price instead of betting to win 1 unit on Philly’s ML.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS since the Phillies are 7-10 RL as home favorites and the Padres are 6-0 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-122) because there’s reverse line movement headed south of the total and the Under has cashed in 6 of the last 8 Padres-Phillies meetings.
Roughly 70% of the money is on the Over according to Pregame.com, but the total has been lowered from an 8-run opener and the Under is pricier. This type of line movement is very suspicious and the oddsmakers are seemingly daring bettors to take the Over.
However, I prefer Phillies on the ML more so than the UNDER 7.5 (-122) because we don’t know what kind of Snell we’ll see in his first outing.
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