The New York Mets (32-24) and the San Diego Padres (37-29) wrap up their three-game set in Citi Field Sunday at 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego has lost the first two games of this series, four straight, and six out of their last seven. New York has now won three in a row and five of their last six games.
Season series: Mets lead 4-2.
RHP Chris Paddack is on the rubber for the Padres. Paddack is 2-5 with a 4.27 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 across 11 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-2, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K last Sunday vs. the Mets.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 50 at-bats with a .260/.315/.400 slash line, 15/3 K/BB, 2 HR and 4 RBIs.
LHP Joey Lucchesi makes his seventh start (with three bullpen outings) for the Mets. Lucchesi is 1-4 with a 5.79 ERA (28 IP, 18 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-0, with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 3 K at the Padres June 4.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 27 at-bats with a .222/.250/.481 slash line, 5/1 K/BB, 2 HR and 2 RBIs.
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Padres at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Mets 6, Padres 4
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the METS (+110) for a tiny wager because New York’s lineup has been far more productive recently and the Mets have an edge in relief pitching.
New York’s lineup has the fourth-highest WAR, wRC+, and wOBA over the last two weeks while San Diego’s bats are last in all three categories.
Also, the Padres’ lineup is struggling vs. left-handed pitching this season as they rank in the bottom-5 of the MLB in OPS and wOBA while ranking sixth-worst in wRC+.
Furthermore, the Mets relievers are first in WAR and in the top-3 of xFIP and SIERA this year.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the METS +0.5 (-125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because they’ll fare better this week vs. Paddack than last week since he predominantly only throws a fastball or change up. The previous experience against Paddack will pay dividends for New York’s lineup.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because San Diego’s bullpen is almost as good as New York’s and both starters kept the damage minimal when they faced Sunday’s opponent earlier this season.
However, something tells me these lineups could tee off on the starters this time around since both are “back of the rotation” guys.
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