The New York Mets (31-24) host the San Diego Padres (37-28) for the second game of their three-game series at Citi Field Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York won the first game of the series 3-2 behind another gem from 2020 NL Cy Young finalist Jacob deGrom who pitched 6 scoreless innings, allowing just 1 hit and striking out 10 batters with 0 walks.
Season series: Mets lead 3-2
RHP Joe Musgrove is the projected starter for the Padres. Musgrove is 4-5 with a 2.33 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 0.84 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 over 11 starts and 1 bullpen appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-0, in 5 IP with 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 10 K vs. the Mets last Saturday.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 75 at-bats with a .280/.316/.560 slash line, 21/2 K/BB, 5 HR and 8 RBIs.
RHP Marcus Stroman makes his 13th start for the Mets. Stroman is 5-4 with a 2.41 ERA (71 IP, 19 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 6-2, in 6 2/3 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 7 K Sunday at the Padres.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 90 at-bats with a .222/.290/.333 slash line, 22/8 K/BB, 2 HR and 8 RBIs.
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Padres at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:28 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Mets 4, Padres 2
Money line (ML)
BET the METS (+110) for 1 unit because they are awesome at Citi Field (16-5 home record) and have a fantastic 24-15 record against righty starters.
Also, going from deGrom to Stroman the next day is a difficult adjustment for a lineup to make, especially a lineup as inconsistent as San Diego’s this season.
For instance, deGrom’s fastball hits 100-plus mph on the gun regularly whereas Stroman has a deeper pitch arsenal, utilizing more offspeed pitches and his fastball velocity is in the lower 90s.
Furthermore, New York’s lineup is starting to get healthier and produce. Over the past two weeks, the Mets hitters have the second-highest WAR, wRC+, and wOBA in the majors.
On the other side, the Padres have the second-lowest WAR and wOBA over the last 14 days with the third-fewest wRC+.
Lastly, Musgrove has lost all three starts vs. the Mets in his career with a 6.11 ERA in four appearances, and his numbers this season against losing teams are deGromian but vs. winning teams they’re mediocre.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets -1.5 (+225) alternate run line because of the fat payout, but I’ll stay away since the Padres are 10-9 on the run line as a road favorite this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7 (-105) as both starters are “top of the rotation” guys who could be making the National League All-Star team if they keep up their current form.
Moreover, neither lineup has produced at its potential this season and both bullpens are in the top-10 units of SIERA, xFIP and WAR.
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