The San Diego Padres (18-17) and Minnesota Twins (19-16) meet Tuesday as they swing into a 3-game series in Minneapolis. The first pitch from Target Field is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; San Diego took 2 of 3 from Minnesota last season
The Padres are on the road after a 5-3 homestand. They struggled mightily on offense on their last road trip, a 4-3 voyage that saw the club slash a mere .193/.282/.323 (.605 OPS).
The Twins are back at home after a 2-4 road trip, and perhaps they wish they had logged a .605 OPS. Minnesota scored just 3.00 runs per game on a whiff-heavy .523 OPS. The Twins averaged 5.20 RPG over their last homestand April 21-30.
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Padres at Twins projected starters
RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Louie Varland
Wacha (2-1, 5.46 ERA) is making his 7th start. He’s logged a 1.40 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 31 1/3 IP.
- Last start May 2 vs. Cincinnati Reds: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss
- Has held current Twins batters to an aggregate .677 OPS
Varland (0-0, 5.91 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 10 2/3 IP.
- Has missed a lot of bats (15.3% swinging strikes) while displaying an uptick in velo
- Has allowed barreled contact — including 4 HR — on 13.3% of balls in play
- Has been hampered by a .346 batting average on balls in play
Padres at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Padres -104 (bet $104 to win $100) | Twins -112 (bet $100 to win $112)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+150) | Twins +1.5 (-182)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 6, Padres 5
Moneyline
Which Wacha will the Friars get this season? He of the 3.32 ERA a year ago? Or the veteran logging a 5.11 ERA from 2019-21? So far he looks more like the latter.
Varland has some upside, and Minnesota has hit well in its home park. But PASS, and look to leverage some partial-unit funds on the Twins if the price hits -110 or better.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS. The upside of this total is the likable angle on scoring, so the Run Line cushion does not offer as much as it would in, say, a 7-run environment.
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Over/Under
Both teams sports some early-season analytics indicating some negative regression due in pitching/defense. On a warmed-up evening in Minneapolis, with a Padres club that had been hitting of late before running into LA Dodgers pitching last weekend, and a hitting-well-at-home Minnesota squad, BACK THE OVER 9 (-110).
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