[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The San Diego Padres (67-76) and Houston Astros (81-62) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 1-1
The Padres lost 7-5 as +108 underdogs in the 2nd game of the series Saturday. San Diego had a 2-run lead after 4 innings before allowing 5 runs in the 5th.
DH Yordan Álvarez hit a solo HR in the 3rd inning, and RF Kyle Tucker added 2 RBIs to surpass 100 on the season. Houston has won 4 of 5 and owns a 1½-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West.
Padres at Astros projected starters
RHP Matt Waldron vs. RHP J.P. France
Waldron (0-2, 5.12 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 5th appearance. The rookie has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 19 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in relief during 9-7 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Monday
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on Aug. 19
- First career road game
- Never faced the Astros before
France (10-5, 3.72 ERA) makes his 21st start and 22nd appearance. The rookie has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 121 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 13-6 victory at Texas Rangers Monday
- 2023 home stats: 4-3, 4.91 ERA (58 2/3 IP, 32 ER) in 10 starts
- Never faced the Padres before
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Padres at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-155) | Astros -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Padres at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
The ASTROS (-145) should take this series Sunday with Waldron on the mound for the Padres. Waldron will be making just his 3rd career start and will be playing in his 1st career road game.
France had a poor showing last time out but has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 of his last 10 outings.
BET ASTROS (-145).
Run line/Against the spread
The Astros are just 26-38 on the run line this season as home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com. San Diego +1.5 (-155) will likely hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Houston ML is the better play.
PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.
Over/Under
France should bounce back after allowing 5 earned runs in his last start. While Sunday will be Waldron’s 1st career road game, the Astros average just 4.49 runs per game at home (18th in MLB). With France on the mound and the Astros’ offensive struggles at home, I believe that UNDER 10 (-110) is the better play in Sunday’s matchup.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Corey Scott on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]