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The San Diego Padres (67-75) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the Houston Astros (80-62) Saturday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 1-0
The Padres opened a 9-game road trip with an 11-2 victory in the series opener Friday. San Diego has won 5 of its last 7 games but is still 7 games back for the final NL Wild Card.
The Astros have now lost 4 of their last 7 but the 3 wins were a sweep over the AL West rival Texas Rangers. Houston has a 1/2-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West and has opened up a 3-game lead over the Rangers.
Padres at Astros projected starters
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Cristian Javier
Lugo (6-6, 3.49 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 121 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-0 home win over San Francisco Giants Sunday
- Recorded a 1.24 ERA across 29 IP over his last 5 starts
Javier (9-3, 4.65 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 137 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 6-1 home loss to New York Mets on Sunday
- Owns a 5.84 ERA through 29 1/3 IP in last 6 starts
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Padres at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Astros 2
Moneyline
Lugo has been lights out over the last month and the Padres have won 3 of his last 4 starts. They are 28-39 on the road but the Astros are only 35-35 at home this season.
Javier has been giving up runs recently.
The Astros have been feast or famine with their bats. In their last 7 wins, they have averaged 13 runs a game. In their last 6 losses? 1.8 runs.
BET PADRES (+110).
Run line/Against the spread
The Astros are an awful 44-60 ATS as favorites this season.
The Padres have won outright 22 times in their last 24 games covering the spread.
If you like the Padres to cover, then you will want to take the moneyline for those nice plus odds.
PASS.
Over/Under
Four of Lugo’s last 5 starts have had 9 or fewer runs.
Seven of the Padres’ last 11 games have not passed a 9-run total. Eight of their last 10 wins have not reached double-digit total runs.
BET UNDER 9 (-110).
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