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The San Diego Padres (66-75) and Houston Astros (80-61) open up a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park Friday. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting Padres won 4 of 6 games in 2021
After an off day Thursday, the Friars head into Houston after dropping 2 of 3 to the Philadelphia Phillies to start the week. San Diego is just 11-19 over the last 30 games and sits 7 games out of an NL Wild Card spot. However, the Padres have had success in interleague play, going 21-16.
The Astros are fresh off a 3-game sweep of the fading Texas Rangers from Monday to Wednesday. Houston is 7-3 over the last 10 games and holds a half-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. The Astros are 23-17 in interleague play.
Padres at Astros projected starters
LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Snell (12-9, 2.50 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 155 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 8 K against the San Francisco Giants Saturday
- Last 5 starts vs. Astros: 2-2, 5.60 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 27 K in 27 1/3 IP
Brown (10-10, 4.53 ERA) makes his 26th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 137 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 5 K Saturday against New York Yankees
- Home/road splits: 3-6, 5.56 ERA, 1.62 WHIP in 11 home starts; 7-4, 3.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 14 road starts, 15 games
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Padres at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-185) | Astros -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Padres at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Astros 3
Moneyline
The Astros are beatable at home as they’re just 35-34. Snell is closing in on the NL Cy Young Award and hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 starts and has a 2.20 ERA in his last 7 turns. Before sweeping the Rangers, the Astros were swept at home by the lowly New York Yankees. I’ll take a chance on PADRES (+110).
Run line/Against the spread
The Padres’ side is too juiced up at -185 to consider. I would consider taking BLAKE SNELL OVER 6.5 K’s (+105) here. He has struck out 7 or more in 7 of his last 8 starts.
Over/Under
The Padres are 4-5-1 O/U over the last 10, and Houston is 7-2-1. Snell has pitched to the Under in 4 straight starts. The Under has cashed in 3 of the last 5 meetings between the clubs. This is a little tall of a number for me the way that Snell has been pitching lately.
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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