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The San Diego Padres (26-26) and Cincinnati Reds (20-29) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 3-2
The Padres snapped a 2-game skid with a 7-3 win Wednesday. They pounded out 14 hits in the bounceback victory after losing Tuesday’s series opener 2-0. San Diego has won 4 of its last 6 games but is 5-5 over its last 10.
The Reds have lost 4 of their last 5 games and are 4-16 in their last 20.
Padres at Reds projected starters
RHP Matt Waldron vs. RHP Frankie Montas
Waldron (2-5, 5.00 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 45 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 3-1 road win over Atlanta Braves Friday
- Padres are 2-7 in his starts
Montas (2-3, 4.37 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 35 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 7-3 road loss to Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
- Career vs. Padres: 1-0, 2.84 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.26 WHIP in 2 starts — last faced them in 2021
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Padres at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:34 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+145) | Reds +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Padres at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Reds 3
Moneyline
The Padres’ last 3 losses, and 4 of their last 6, have been shutouts.
The Reds haven’t won a series since sweeping the Los Angeles Angels in a 3-game set at home April 19-21.
They’ve won 2 out of 3 games only once in the last 20 outings.
The Padres are 16-10 on the road this season.
Based on the Reds’ last 20 games, you can’t expect them to win a series, so expect a Padres win.
BET PADRES (-110).
Run line/Against the spread
I usually say to either bet the underdog on the moneyline or the favorite on the run line. This is a good game to double down.
Of the Padres’ last 18 wins, 16 have been by at least 2 runs.
But the Reds have five 1-run losses in their last 10 setbacks, so it isn’t as sure a bet.
Go with the moneyline as the main bet, but add a small wager on the run line to potentially ladder the win with greater gains.
BET PADRES -1.5 (+145).
Over/Under
Only 2 of the Reds’ last 8 games have reached 10 total runs.
San Diego’s last 3 wins have all had at least 10 total runs, but those are the only 3 Padres games over their last 15 contests with 10 or more runs.
BET UNDER 9.5 (-115).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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