The San Diego Padres (37-44) kick off a 3-game weekend series against the Cincinnati Reds (43-38) Friday. First pitch at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is set for 5:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 2-1, outscoring Reds 16-6
The Padres lost 5-4 Thursday, getting swept in 3 at the Pittsburgh Pirates. San Diego has lost 5 games in a row and 8 of its last 10.
After reeling off 12 straight wins, the Reds dropped 3 in a row, but rebounded to win the last 2 games of their series against the Orioles in Baltimore. Cincinnati is tied with the Milwaukee Brewers atop the NL Central.
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Padres at Reds projected starters
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft
Lugo (3-4, 4.01 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 51 2/3 innings.
- In 2 starts since spending month on IL with calf strain, allowed 4 ER in 10 IP with 9/1 K/BB
- May 3 vs. Reds: Win, 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-1 victory
- 3.21 ERA with 24 K and just 3 HR allowed in 28 IP in 5 road starts
Ashcraft (3-6, 7.17 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.67 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 69 innings.
- Roughed up by Atlanta Braves last weekend in 1st start off IL with 6 ER allowed in 4 IP
- 2.00 ERA in 1st 6 starts; in last 8 starts has brutal 12.82 ERA with 11 HR allowed in 33 IP
- 9.82 ERA in 8 home starts with a 6.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 36 1/3 IP
Padres at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+105) | Reds +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Padres at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 7, Reds 5
Moneyline
The Reds have been one of the hottest teams in the league and have pushed their way to the top of the NL Central. But they have lost 5 of the last 6 games Ashcraft has started, and he’s not a pitcher you want to invest in right now.
BACK PADRES (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
Ashcraft has allowed at least 6 ER in 5 of his last 8 starts, even though he has averaged just over 4 innings per start during that span. A trip to the IL didn’t seem to fix what was ailing him, and he has been awful at his hitter-friendly home park this season.
Look for the PADRES -1.5 (+105) to put plenty of runs on the board, and they are a good bet to win this game by multiple runs.
DIVVY 1½ UNITS between the PADRES (-140) MONEYLINE and the PADRES -1.5 (+105) SPREAD.
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Over/Under
It is pretty clear the San Diego bats are set up for a good day. On the other side, Lugo will have his hands full with a Cincinnati offense that has averaged 7 runs per game in its last 11 contests.
Look for this total to push just OVER 11 (-105).
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