San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (15-17) host the San Diego Padres (20-12) Friday for the start of their 3-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego is 6-4 overall in the last 10 but lost 2 of its previous 3-game series with the Chicago Cubs Monday-Wednesday.

Atlanta is 5-5 in the last 10 games and split its previous three series with the New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets.

Season series: Tied 2-2, but San Diego has outscored Atlanta 18-12 in those meetings.

Padres at Braves projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. LHP Max Fried

Darvish is 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 33 1/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • Beat the Miami Marlins 3-2 May 6 with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • Won vs. the Braves 2-1 April 17 with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 2.00 FIP with a .197 expected batting average (xBA), .270 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .311 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 34.7 K% and 84.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 101 plate appearances (PA).

Fried is 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 37 IP across 6 starts.

  • Won vs. the Brewers 3-2 Saturday with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Padres: Won 4-0 on a CG shutout with 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 3.11 FIP with a .233/.270/.350 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 23.8 K% and 90.4 mph EV in 42 PA.

Padres at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Padres at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Padres 3

Money line

BET the BRAVES (-170) for a two-thirds unit because it’s a little expensive vs. a Padres (+135) team I’m high on. But, Atlanta has the edge in the starting and relief pitching matchup.

Fried grades in the 92nd percentile or better in EV, chase rate and BB% (according to Statcast) and has dominated San Diego’s lineup in their two meetings. Darvish’s stuff isn’t as nasty in 2022. His current contact, outside-the-zone contact and swinging-strike rates are career-worsts.

Also, Atlanta’s bullpen is much stronger than San Diego’s. The Braves’ relievers are better by ERA, xFIP, K/BB rate, home runs allowed per 9 innings and hard-hit rate.

It’s expensive – so I wouldn’t hit it for a full unit, but the BRAVES (-170) are the right side.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Braves -1.5 (+133) isn’t a big enough payout considering Atlanta is just 29-62 RL as home favorites since the beginning of 2021. Darvish beat the Braves in a 1-run game earlier this season, and betting Atlanta as a home favorite has a terrible return on investment.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN OVER 7.5 (+110) because there could be value in fading an obvious Under-play with two “top-of-the-rotation” starters on the hill.

Also, both starters pitched to the Under in their previous Padres-Braves outing so it zagging on that recency bias might be a sharp play.

However, Atlanta’s ML is my favorite play in this wager – so I wouldn’t go heavy on the OVER 7.5 (+110).

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