The San Diego Padres (55-41) visit the Atlanta Braves (45-47) Monday at Truist Park for the opener of their three-game series with first pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego whaled on the Washington Nationals in the nation’s capital over the weekend, outscoring them 41-20 as the Padres took two of three games in the series.
Atlanta dropped two of three when hosting the Tampa Bay Rays this past weekend. Despite a losing record, the Braves are just 4 games back of the New York Mets for first place in the NL East.
Season series: Tied 0-0
RHP Yu Darvish makes his 19th start for the Padres. He is 7-3 with a 3.09 ERA (105 IP, 36 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 9-8 win July 8 against the Washington Nationals with 3 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 0 BB and 2 K.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 80 at-bats with a .213/.312/.375 slash line, 29/12 K/BB, 2 HR and 7 RBIs.
LHP Kyle Muller is Atlanta’s projected starter. He is 1-2 with a 3.45 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 9 H, 8 BB and 20 K through three starts and one relief appearance. This is the 23-year-old’s rookie season.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 7 K July 3 against the Miami Marlins.
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Padres at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Braves +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-105) | Braves +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Padres 7, Braves 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the PADRES (-165) for a half unit because I think Darvish rights the ship after struggling prior to the All-Star break and the red-hot Padres lineup drills the young Braves starter and/or the mediocre Atlanta bullpen.
San Diego’s lineup is locked in at the moment, ranking in the top-10 in most advanced hitting metrics such as WAR, wRC+ and wOBA this month. The Padres are also 16-7 vs. left-handed starters this season.
Additionally, Atlanta’s lineup is without several key hitters including All-Star OF Ronald Acuna Jr., who suffered a season-ending torn ACL before the break.
Lastly, San Diego is 14-4 this season in Darvish starts and if he can turn a close game over to his relievers then I have faith the Padres bats will do damage against an Atlanta bullpen ranked 22nd in xFIP and K-BB%.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the PADRES -1.5 (-105) for a half unit only because I would play either San Diego’s money line or the run line and not both.
My preference is to play it safe and risk a half unit on San Diego’s money line because the Padres are just 15-16 ATS as home favorites and Darvish allowed 10 earned runs and three homers in his last two starts.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 9 (-105) since San Diego is 12-6 O/U in games Darvish starts and the Padres have played to the Over in their last eight games against NL East teams.
However, there isn’t a lot of margin between my projected score and BetMGM‘s total so I’ll just stay away.
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