The San Diego Padres (45-30) open a 2-game set on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks (33-41) Tuesday. First pitch is 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego leads the season series against Arizona 6-1.
The Padres swept the Diamondbacks in a 3-game series at home two weekends ago, but since then have lost 3 of 4 games to the Philadelphia Phillies. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games after winning 11 of 14.
The Diamondbacks snapped a 5-game losing streak with Sunday’s 11-7 win over the Detroit Tigers. They are 5-10 in their last 15 games.
Padres at Diamonbacks projected starters
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Zac Gallen
Manaea (3-3, 3.87 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 79 IP.
- He is 1-0 against the Diamondbacks in 2 starts with a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings against them.
- Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 of his last 4 starts.
Gallen (4-5, 2.79 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 71 IP.
- Had a no-decision in June 21 start vs. the Padres with 6 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 4 H, 3 BB and 11 K.
- Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 11 of 13 starts this season.
Padres at Diamondbacks odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:07 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+140) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Padres 4
Money line
The Diamondbacks will pretty much always win 1 game of a series. The only team to sweep them in Phoenix has been the Dodgers.
The Padres are great on the road at 24-14, but they are facing Arizona’s ace in Gallen, although the D-backs have lost 3 of his last 4 outings.
Gallen puts them in the best position to win of their starters most consistently.
The key is whether the Diamondbacks can get 5 runs. They have had 5 or more runs in their last 13 wins and have failed to score 5 runs in their last 9 losses and in 20 of their last 22 losses. Of their 41 losses, they had 5 runs or more in only 6 of them.
Manaea has allowed 3 or more runs in 7 of his 13 starts.
Take the DIAMONDBACKS (-105).
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Run line/Against the spread
The Diamondbacks are 41-33 ATS on the season, while the Padres are 40-35 ATS.
The Padres do top the majors with a 27-14 ATS record on the road.
Six of the Diamondbacks’ last 7 losses have been by 2 runs or more, so if you like the Padres to win the game outright, taking them on the run line is the better bet.
However, as I expect an Arizona upset win, the better value is the money line. PASS on the run line.
Over/Under
As previously mentioned, the 5-run mark is key for an Arizona win. Twelve of their last 14 wins have had 8 or more total runs.
Only 2 of the 7 games between the 2 teams have had 8 or more runs, but if Arizona is to win, this is the best bet.
Take OVER 7.5 (-115).
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