Good news, everyone: the New Orleans Saints have a better chance of making the playoffs after their bye week than they did going into the break despite their 4-9 record. The projections at FiveThirtyEight currently give the Saints a 0.9% shot at reaching the postseason — that’s an improvement over the 0.7% odds they had after losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week ago.
It sure helps that the Buccaneers fell to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon, with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy outplaying Tom Brady in a 35-7 final score. Bradly threw a touchdown pass late in regulation to narrowly avoid a shutout loss, but Tampa Bay’s loss keeps the door open for New Orleans.
So while it isn’t exactly a good chance of a miracle run back to relevancy, there is a shot for the Saints to rally down the stretch and take advantage of their weak division. Of course that’s been the story for them all year, and head coach Dennis Allen hasn’t managed to do it with either Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston at quarterback, but the math checks out. Their season isn’t over just yet.
How could things change this week? If the Saints beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, their playoff odds improve to 1%; they need both the Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers to lose their games for it to rise higher to 3%. If either of those teams wins or ties their opponents, New Orleans is stuck in the mud behind them. They’ll need a lot of help to salvage this season, but that’s been their story all along, hasn’t it? No team has needed to help itself more than the Saints while actually doing more to hurt itself this year. Hopefully Allen can find a way to reverse that narrative in these final four games.
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