The ongoing coronavirus pandemic is causing stress on the economy, and even considering the king of sports that the NFL is, the league is going to feel some impacts of it, too.
Namely, the 2021 salary cap.
With limited or no fans in stadiums this season, the league is in for a significant hit to its 2020 revenue, which will have an impact on the 2021 salary cap. On Friday, it was reported that the NFL proposed to the NFLPA that the salary cap floor next year be set at $175 million. The league and players union are currently negotiating different aspects of safety protocols and more going forward in order to settle differences that the pandemic has caused on both sides.
The salary cap could be higher if the decrease in revenue is not as steep as expected, but $175 million per team would be the low point, otherwise known as the cap floor.
For reference, the salary cap in 2020 is currently $198.2 million and it typically increases by about 10 percent per year, a $23 million decrease would be bad news for every team. According to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, the impacts from the 2020 COVID-19 season could be felt through the next few seasons as well:
The proposal being discussed by the NFL and NFLPA would spread the impact of any revenue shortfall in 2020 over four years, with a 2021 salary cap of at least $175 million, sources tell me and @MikeGarafolo. No change to the 2020 cap despite owners' proposals.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) July 24, 2020
In terms of individual teams, some would be in a worse position than others, depending on the current structure of their roster. According to Over The Cap, if that $175 million cap floor is where things fall, the Bills wouldn’t be in the best position, but it wouldn’t be the worst. Buffalo would have $15.5 million in adjusted cap space, if they’re able to carryover their current cap space into next season. Buffalo’s figure sits at the 19th best in the league via OTC’s numbers.
For comparisons sake, the Colts would far and away shave the most cap space at $91.1M, edging out the Chargers at $73.8M. On the other end of the spectrum, some teams aren’t sitting pretty at all. The Eagles would be in the hole for $71.5M, while the Saints would be $66.1M over the cap. Yikes.
What’s really important here looking at the Bills, though? Their expiring contracts. In terms of important pieces slated to become free agents, the three big fish include two guys who have their rookie contracts expiring. The non-rookie: Jon Feliciano. His current cap hit is only $4.4M, but could the Bills want to keep their continuity in the trenches together? Feliciano was their starting right guard in 2019 and will likely be just that in 2020.
The other two drafted ones are massive, really. Those two are linebacker Matt Milano and left tackle Dion Dawkins. Both have been key kogs on their respective sides of the ball for the Bills over the past few seasons since being selected by the team at the 2017 NFL Draft.
Spotrac doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the Bills in terms of those guys, either. Per Spotrac, Milano’s estimated average annual salary on his next contract could be $13M, while Dawkins’ estimation lands him at $15.9M.
The way the salary cap situation unfolds moving forward is certainly something important for the Bills to keep tabs on. You don’t have to think twice about general manager Brandon Beane. He’s going to need every inch of cap space possible to get those two signed to extensions.
[lawrence-related id=66865,66857,66850,66841]