When looking at the Ohio State Buckeyes in advance of Friday’s Big Ten game against the Wisconsin Badgers, I wrote that I have no clue what to expect. College basketball is a muddled mystery right now. Ohio State and Wisconsin are both ping-ponging all over the place in their results and in the way their lineups perform. Wisconsin was very impressive against Tennessee, and yet Micah Potter barely played and didn’t make a big dent in the stat sheet. If you thought Potter would be a transformative figure for Wisconsin, we haven’t really seen that yet. It doesn’t mean he won’t be that person. It doesn’t mean he can’t be that person. However, he wasn’t a meaningful participant in the win over Tennessee.
This leaves me with a lack of clarity as I attempt to predict what will happen against Ohio State. I have no feel for this game in terms of making a prediction. The fact that Ohio State has crushed North Carolina and Penn State but lost to Minnesota and West Virginia in its last six games makes me wonder what the Buckeyes will do in this game. If you’re looking for a game prediction, don’t look here. I got nothing.
What I can offer, however, is an assessment of what is most likely to win this game. It doesn’t represent a guarantee, but it is my best sense of what will probably decide the outcome in Columbus. Yes, one team could find a blowtorch and get really hot from 3-point range, but if you want to know where — and how — Badgers-Buckeyes is likely to be decided, look in the painted area, part of the cover image for this piece.
Remember Wisconsin’s previous — and, to date, only — Big Ten road game this season? The Badgers shot near 50 percent from the field, but because they were bludgeoned on the glass, Rutgers got a ton of second-chance points and used those hustle stats to defeat Wisconsin. Rutgers plainly wanted 50-50 balls a lot more than UW did. In a conference game — with its familiar matchups and substantial emotional energy — Rutgers felt more comfortable in the matchup and displayed more energy when (and where) it mattered most.
Maybe Wisconsin or Ohio State will shoot the cover off the ball, making rebounding a relatively unimportant key, but unless we get an amazing shooting display from one side, rebounds should represent a central aspect of Friday’s game. Wisconsin can’t get bullied on the backboard. The Badgers have to stand up to Kaleb Wesson, but they also have to gang-rebound against Ohio State’s wings and guards. Everyone has to chip in, and everyone has to fight with the tenacity a Big Ten game requires.
The win over Tennessee was great. Yet, it came on a day when the Vols were without senior point guard Lamonte Turner, who was knocked out for the season with an injury earlier in December. Ohio State doesn’t have the same limitation to its roster. Wisconsin has to be aware of the depth and pervasiveness of effort which will be required to win this game… and then put forth that effort on the court.
If the Tennessee game suggested Wisconsin can evolve into a good team, a win at Ohio State will declare, quite powerfully, that the Badgers are capable of greatness. The task isn’t easy, but a victory will give this team an enormous boost — not just in its NCAA Tournament resume, but in its sense of itself. To achieve a grand triumph, Wisconsin has to scratch and scrap on the boards as though everything is at stake.