LSU will face UCLA on Saturday with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. If the Tigers pass the test, it sets up a potential rematch of last year’s national title game with Caitlyn Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Last year, LSU got the best of Iowa, winning 102-85. If the two meet again, what could the betting odds say about Iowa’s revenge hopes?
Using current national title odds, common opponents, and public rating systems, I’ll try to take a stab at predicting what the spread will be.
In the Sweet 16, LSU is a 3.5-point favorite over UCLA while Iowa is favored by 6.5 against Colorado. Iowa’s odds to win the region are +100, better than LSU’s +190. Factored in there is that LSU has a tougher opponent this weekend, but that info still suggests Iowa would be a slight favorite over LSU.
With all that in mind, I’d project Iowa to be favored by 2.5 if it met LSU. That’s also in line with the Massey Ratings, which produces an average score of 82-80 Iowa in its simulations.
It’s rare for this LSU team to find itself as an underdog, but if it has hopes of repeating, the Tigers will have to pull a few upsets.
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