The Dallas Cowboys beat the Minnesota Vikings at their own game on Sunday. Coming out of a bye week and flaunting a four-game losing streak, the Cowboys were 31-28 victors on the strength of their running game. This wasn’t just played out in the volume stats, where the Cowboys backs and receivers averaged 6.3 yards a carry and accounted for 175 yards, but also in the stat du jour of EPA.
The Vikings had used this formula to forge themselves back into being competitive for a 2021 wild-card berth. In three of their four victories, stud running back Dalvin Cook (who leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage and TDs) has had more EPA on plays without QB Kirk Cousins than Cousins has had on plays not involving Cook. On Sunday, the Cowboys mirrored this as RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard along with WR CeeDee Lamb had higher EPAs on their touches than quarterback Andy Dalton did when each one was individually removed from his passing EPA.
EPA, or Expected Points Added, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. For anyone with a passing knowledge of EPA, they know how much more efficient passing is than running. It’s really no comparison. So for a running back to out-independent-EPA a quarterback, it’s really saying something. For three different runners to do so in a game a team scored four TDs, that’s beyond impressive.
On running plays, Elliott accounted for 2.5 EPA, Pollard 2.9 and Lamb 3.3. Dalton, who passed for a 2.3 EPA on the game, passed for just 0.7 EPA when taking away Elliott’s receiving EPA. Lamb had a -0.9 receiving EPA (which puts Dalton at +3.2 EPA without him) and Pollard wasn’t targeted.
Even when eliminating the anomaly of Dalton’s self-pass (-1.7 EPA), Elliott still edges that out, +2.5 to +2.4.
The Cowboys aren’t strangers to this, either, even in 2020.
If we admit the club should’ve lost the furious comeback against Atlanta (and readily admit fumbles – including Elliott’s – played a major role), the run game out-EPA’d the passing game in the only other true win, Week 5 against the New York Giants.
Of course, that was the game Dak Prescott was lost for the season with the ankle injury and he left with Dallas leading, but Elliott was an EPA star of that contest.
Just like the Atlanta win, this isn’t to say that inefficient running didn’t contribute to the Cowboys’ losses, they most definitely did. Also, in each of the two “true” wins, as we’re calling them for lack of a better term, there was one receiver who shined brightly in the passing game, attributing to a higher EPA than the running backs.
In Week 5, Lamb had a +9.7 EPA against the Giants. In Sunday’s win, Amari Cooper had a +7.9 EPA against the Vikings.
However, it should not be dismissed that in this game, with two teams who have struggled on the season the team that excelled in the rushing attack came out on top. And that is hardly unfamiliar territory for either despite what the overarching narrative is on the current state of the NFL.
Here’s a look at how each unit fared, using EPA numbers from https://rbsdm.com/stats/box_scores/. This site is the go-to when it comes to EPA Box Scores and overall useful information around the league. You’d be wise to bookmark it.