No NFL team that started the season 1-6 has ever made the postseason. And when the Detroit Lions owned that miserable record, it sure seemed impossible for this to be the team that breaks that historical trend.
Since that 1-6 start, the Detroit Lions are 5-1. The latest win, Sunday’s 34-23 triumph over the 10-3 Vikings, elevated the Lions from the fringe of the “in the playoff hunt” graphics to prominently in the picture. Detroit won in Week 14, while two teams immediately above them in the playoff standings, the Giants and Seahawks, both lost.
At 6-7, the Lions are now nipping at the heels of those two teams in the race for NFC wild card berths. Entering the Monday night game (Cardinals vs. Patriots) of Week 14, here are the NFC standings:
The Lions are one game back of the Seahawks and 1.5 behind the Giants and Commanders, who tied in Week 13. We’re not going to worry ourselves with anyone behind the Lions for playoff purposes.
Detroit has four games left to make up 1.5 games. The Lions play the New York Jets (7-6), Carolina Panthers (5-8), Chicago Bears (3-10) and Green Bay Packers (5-8).
It’s a manageable schedule but not necessarily as easy of one as it might appear from the outside; the Jets have lost three of four and have starting QB Mike White battling injured ribs to start the game week. Carolina has quietly won three of four, including a win on Sunday in Seattle. The Panthers cannot be taken lightly. The final two foes are NFC North rivals and nothing is ever easy within the division even as badly as Chicago and Green Bay are playing this season.
The Lions do need some help. Detroit lost to Seattle early in the season, giving the Seahawks the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the two teams finish with the same record, Seattle would earn the playoff berth.
Detroit owns the tiebreak with both Washington and New York, but when those two teams tied in Week 13, it effectively negated the tiebreaker advantage for the Lions. In short, the Lions have four weeks to earn two games over two of three teams.
Various outlets put the odds for the Lions to pull that off at right around 20 percent.
The Lions are longshots to qualify for the postseason, to be sure. They need help from the upcoming foes of the three teams they are battling with for the final two spots.
The clearest path
Washington and New York play in Week 15. If the Commanders win, that basically (but not mathematically) gets them in. More importantly, the loss would drop the Giants to 7-6-1. The Giants would then need to lose at least two of their final three: at Minnesota, home for the Colts and the finale in Philadelphia against an Eagles team that could very well have the No. 1 seed locked down already. The Giants would end up 8-8-1 in that scenario. The way the Giants have been playing lately, those are fair odds to occur.
Seattle would also need to lose at least three of its final four: home for San Francisco this Thursday night, then at the Chiefs, home for the Jets and then the Rams. Going 1-3 in those games would leave Seattle at 8-9. That’s plausible but far from bankable.
The 6-7 Lions could then go 3-1 to finish 9-8 (or 4-0 to finish 10-7) and qualify. Again, plausible but not necessarily bankable. Of course, if the Lions don’t take care of their own business, nothing else matters.
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