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The Pittsburgh Pirates (5-1) and Washington Nationals (2-3) meet Thursday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
Washington picked up the 5-3 win over Pittsburgh in Wednesday’s game 2 of the series, covering as a +139 home underdogs. The Pirates scored first, plating 2 in the top of the 2nd inning, but the Nationals answered with a 4-run bottom half of the frame for a lead they never would relinquish. 1B Joey Gallo snapped an 0-for-12 streak to open the season with a 3-for-4 outing, including a solo homer in the 2nd.
The loss was Pittsburgh’s first of the season and ended a 5-game win streak. RHP Mitch Keller was credited with the loss, yielding 5 runs — 4 earned — in 5 1/3 innings. LF Jack Suwinski had 2 of the Pirates’ 4 hits, including a solo blast in the top of the 6th to cut the Bucs’ deficit to 4-3.
Pirates at Nationals projected starters
LHP Martin Perez vs. RHP Josiah Gray
Perez (0-0, 2.08 ERA) makes his 2nd start of the season. He has a 2.08 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 4.2 K/9 through 4 1/3 IP.
- Perez opened his 2024 campaign with a 7-2 win over the Miami Marlins Friday, allowing 1 ER on 6 H and 3 BB with 2 K
- 2023 road splits: 5-3, 5.18 ERA (73 IP, 42 ER), 26 BB, 43 K in 11 starts and 7 relief appearances
- Career vs. Washington: 0-2, 7.80 ERA (15 IP, 13 ER), 21 H, 5 BB, 10 K across 3 starts and 1 relief appearance
Gray (0-1, 15.75 ERA) also makes his 2nd start. He has a 2.50 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 through 4 innings.
- Gray opened his 2024 season with an 8-2 loss at the Cincinnati Reds March 28, allowing 7 ER on 8 H and 2 BB with 6 K
- 2023 home splits: 4-6, 5.49 ERA (59 IP, 36 ER), 62 H, 38 BB, 48 K in 12 starts
- Career vs. Pittsburgh: 1-1, 4.15 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 9 BB, 20 K in 3 starts
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Pirates at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Nationals +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+125) | Nationals +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Pirates at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 7, Nationals 3
Moneyline
BET PIRATES (-135).
Pittsburgh has won 5 of its 6 games to start the season and is 4-1 in its last 5 matchups vs. the Nationals. The Pirates are also 4-2 in their last 6 matchups vs. the Nationals in D.C.
The Nationals have lost 2 of their last 3 games, and haven’t won back-to-back games since Sept. 19-20 of last season.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS..
Pittsburgh -1.5 (+125) should cover, but their odds are safer on the moneyline, especially with how impressive they’ve been to start the season.
I am also not a fan of doubling down on a team, backing them on the moneyline and the run line, but if you want to place a small wager here that’s fine. I’d recommend betting on the moneyline and/or total instead.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9 (+100).
The Over has hit in 5 of Pittsburgh’s 6 games, coming up short for the first time this season with Wednesday’s losing result. The Over is also 6-2 in its last 8 games dating back to last season.
For the Nationals, the Over is 4-1 to start their 2024 campaign. The Over has also hit in 2 of Pittsburgh’s last 3 wins vs. Washington.
This is only a lean because the Over and Under have been very even in recent meetings between these squads, going 5-5 in the last 10
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